First Pitch – August 5th – Value Picks:
For the first Tuesday in August we’re going to switch things up a bit and take a break from the traditional Sabermetric Tuesdays to provide you with a more comprehensive set of Value Picks column with a bit of a different flair. In the past we’ve focused on fewer players with more in-depth write-ups. The result has been better analysis but fewer suggestions, so this week we’re going to try something a little different and provide shorter analysis but a longer list of potential Value Picks. We’ll take a look at a few players at each position who are experiencing a change in value, either up or down, and provide a brief reason behind their value changing. I’ll take you through the National League today and my brother from another mother Joe Ribando, will take you through the American League. Send some feedback in on the format change and let us know which version of Value Picks you prefer, because as always we’re here to service you, our beloved subscribers. Let’s get to it!
Catcher – Risers
1. John Baker – journeyman minor-leaguer with .768 career minor league OPS has racked up 9 Runs, 4 HR’s, and 15 RBI’s in first 20 games behind the dish for Florida. Quietly taking hold of the catcher’s job in FLA.
2. Ramon Castro – Increasing AB’s each month, trying to prove he’s an everyday catcher. Power should be enough, slugging .495 in 100+ AB’s after slugging .556 in 144 AB’s last season. If he can crack the everyday lineup, has huge value hitting at the bottom of Mets order.
Catcher – Fallers
1. Carlos Ruiz – one of our favorites just can’t seem to shake the bad luck (.208 BHIP) or rekindle the power of last season (10% XBH Rate) to go with the great EYE (.84)
2. Jason Kendall – veteran catcher looks gassed after playing in ML high for C’s 103 games, hitting just .169 in July and .133 so far in August
First Base – Risers
1. Steve Pearce – underrated prospect who posted a career .884 OPS at the minor league level
2. Joey Votto – Power is starting to come back around with 4 extra base hits in last 5 games. I think he’s got another 10 HR’s in his bat
3. James Loney – Mark Grace 2.0, 2B’s machine with improving power. Hitting behind Manny will bring plenty of RBI opportunities, racked up 19 in July and looks ready for a strong finish
First Base – Fallers
1. Adrian Gonzalez – Unsustainable early season RBI pace has led to inevitable fall-off. Poor supporting cast has limited the impacts of his very real power growth
2. Derrek Lee – showing signs of aging, increased GB Rate and decreased power numbers since May make DLee a quiet sell-high candidate
Second Base – Risers
1. Emilio Bonifacio – Installed as everyday 2B and off the ground running 5-13 start but more importantly 2 SB attempts in 3 games, could swipe 15-20 from here on out.
2. Mike Fontenot – Increasing AB’s in each month, providing good power production in limited time and should get plenty of time down the stretch as Cubs look to rest regulars in dog days of summer. Nice MI option for those in deep formats looking for pop, slugging .535, Slugged .540 at AAA in ’07 though .437 career minor league Slug, suggests he’s entered peak years and hitting a bit above his head
3. Kaz Matsui – proving it wasn’t a Coors field mirage, improved EYE and XBH Rates, while maintaining good speed production
4. Emmanuel Burriss – 2B job ain’t the only thing he’ll be stealing, good contact skills, high GB Rate, and fantastic speed (68 SB’s in minors in ’07), also SS eligible
Second Base – Fallers
1. Dan Uggla - .190/.292/.381 with 35% K Rate in 63 ABs. .111/.333/.111 in first 9 August AB’s with 4 K’s. Career .788 OPS in August, but just .706 OPS in Sept/Oct. He does this every year, I warned you back in May.
2. Rickie Weeks – with Ray Durham in town, our analysts mourn a breakout candidate gone terribly wrong. Down to 4-5 starts a week and peripherals are evaporating, time to cut bait.
3. Jeff Kent – just 1 month with a Slugging % above .425, evaporating EYE, suggests 40 year old’s career may be coming to a close.
Shortstop – Risers
1. Troy Tulowitzki - .418/.468/.582 July shows Tulo’s slow start this year was more poor luck than anything else. He’s still a borderline Top 5 SS the rest of the way masked by a horrid start and injury issues.
2. Stephen Drew – 90% of the production of Michael Young with 50% of the perceived value. Found his stroke and approach again at the plate of late.
Shortstop – Fallers
1. Yunel Escobar – can’t shake injuries, lack of power and speed makes Escobar an empty batting average guy dependent on lineup production for Runs and RBI’s, no Tex and banged up Chipper hurts the lineup dependent Escobar. Overrated.
2. Christian Guzman – See Escobar, Yunel.
Third Base – Risers
1. Troy Glaus – the power is back in a big way, 17 HR’s since May 31st, still underrated.
2. Andy LaRoche – finally given the everyday job he deserved coming into the season. Continues flashing strong EYE in PIT, power will come too
3. Chad Tracy – if you’re new or haven’t been paying attention… I like Chad Tracy. 10% XBH Rate and .918 OPS in July.
Outfield – Risers
1. Willie Harris – playing everyday, provides an interesting power-speed combo, could quietly go 15-15 this season and brings some multi-position flexibility to the table as well.
2. Jim Edmonds – power is back in a big way and platoon is actually helping him stay healthy. Good HR/RBI production in limited AB’s thanks to Cubs table setters in front of him.
3. Brandon Moss – now playing everyday in PIT, .815 career minor league OPS. Could hit 6-10 HR’s rest of way and provide good RBI production in underrated PIT lineup (even without Nady and Bay)
Outfield – Fallers
1. Andre Ethier – Manny acquisition squeezes Ethier out of playing time, unfairly so.
2. Kosuke Fukudome – lack of power and prolonged slump has rendered Fukudome a category specialist (Runs).
Starting Pitcher – Risers
1. Ricky Nolasco – quietly putting up ace numbers over last 17 starts, 3.30 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 102 K’s in 111 2/3 innings and 10 wins.
2. Randy Johnson – 20 consecutive scoreless innings, over last 7 starts 5-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 36 K’s and just 7 BB’s in 42 IP. I told you to keep the faith, making his run at 300.
3. Clayton Kershaw – just 2 BB’s and 0 ER’s in last 12 innings. If the control is there, the results will follow.
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