Freddy Garcia (SP-NYY) Garcia had his third straight below average start yesterday against the Blue Jays. He allowed 3 runs on 5 hits, 2 home runs and 3 walks while striking out 4 in 4.2 innings pitched. His record fell to 11-7 and his ERA increased to 3.77 for the season. After pitching for most of the season with an incredible HR/FB ratio, Garcia has had trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark recently. He has a 29.2 percent HR/FB ratio during the month of September, and he now has an 8.7 percent ratio for the season. His xFIP of 4.33 suggests regression next season, and I would agree that Garcia probably won't be as fortunate in 2012. His 76.3 percent strand rate has helped him keep his ERA down, and his HR/FB ratio will be closer to his 11.1 percent career ratio.
Josh Willingham (LF-OAK) Willingham went hitless in 4 plate appearances and walked once against Justin Verlander and the Tigers on Sunday afternoon. Willingham has put together a strong 2011 season by providing 27 home runs, 92 RBI and a slash line of .254/.339/.486 in 528 plate appearances. His .232 ISO, 17.2 percent HR/FB ratio and 128 wRC+ are the second best marks of his career. If he is surrounded with more weapons next season, I would expect Willingham to produce a better overall slash line. His 21.2 percent chase rate is the highest of his career and his 10 percent walk rate is his worst since 2006. His batting average drop can be explained by a career high strikeout rate of 26.1 percent, but I think that number will drop next season. He continues to be an underrate fantasy option and f he can get 600 plate appearances next season, Willingham should be able to reach 30 home runs for the first time in his career.
Matt Harrison (SP-TEX) Harrison shutout the impotent Mariners lineup for 6.2 innings on Sunday to lower his ERA to 3.42 and improve his record to 13-9 for the season. He allowed 6 hits and walked 2 while striking out a season high 9 hitters. Out of the any member of the Rangers rotation this season, Harrison has surprised me the most in 2012. He has pitched well during the month with a season low 2.89 xFIP, but he has lowered his overall xFIP to 3.81 for the season (a career best). Harrison came into this season as a left-hander with struggling peripherals, but he has improved them to 2.88 BB/9 and 6.27 K/9 this season (both career bests). He worked mostly out of the bullpen last season, but one of the keys in 2011 has been his ability to keep his increased velocity from last season. His 92.8 mph average fastball is a career high, and that has translated to 7.7 percent swinging strike rate, another career high.
Chris Perez (RP-CLE) Perez earned his thirty-fourth save of the season on Sunday against the Twins. He allowed one hit and one strikeout in his scoreless ninth, and lowered his ERA to 3.49 for the season. As I wrote a few weeks ago, Perez is one closer that I would stay away from in next season's draft. His xFIP of 5.03 is the worst among closers and his average fastball velocity has dropped from 94.6 mph last season to a career low 93.4 mph. Furthermore, his swinging strike rate has dropped from 7.6 to 5.4 percent and his strikeout rate has declined from 8.71 K/9 to a career low 5.88 K/9. He has maintained a low BABIP of .240 despite having a line drive rate of 21.8 percent. Additionally, his 4.13 BB/9 is nothing to write home about either. As long as Kevin Gregg is not left, try and stay away from Perez next season.
Adrian Gonzalez (1B-BOS) Gonzalez went hitless with 2 strikeouts in 4 at-bats against the Rays on Sunday afternoon. His slash line dropped to .333/.402/.547 for the season, and he has 26 home runs and 111 RBI to go along with the impressive line. Gonzalez has made it known of late that is left-shoulder has limited his opposite field power of late, however his September ISO and HR/FB ratio are his highest since June. His wRC+ of 154 is the second best of his career despite the drop in his power and his walk rare (his 9.8 percent rate is his lowest since 2007). Even with the decline in his power, his is still considered a top ten-fantasy player this season and will be one of the first handful of players to go off the board next season. Another offseason recovering from his shoulder surgery should strengthen his shoulder, and I expect him to have a 30 plus home run season in 2012.
