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Fantasy Baseball Projections
Player Commentary

 
Steve Shumansky
May 30, 2014

Madison Bumgarner (SP- Giants)

Madison Bumgarner continues to show why he is the clear ace of the SF pitching staff with another brilliant effort tonight. He picked up his 7th win on 7 shutout innings and 10 K's. He now has a 2.85 ERA which is supported by his xFIP of 2.84. The scary part for the rest of the NL is that his .338 BABIP is a clear 40 points over his career average so his numbers could get better. He has a career best 26.3% K rate and velocity is up to 91.7 mph which is his best mark of his career. Bumgarner made a major leap forward in his swinging strike rate last year when he produced a 2% jump to an 11.1% mark and he has built on that this year sporting a career best 11.7% rate. The man has a CY Young award winner profile and this could be the year that he does it.

Houston Street (RP-San Diego)

Houston Street picked up his 16th save of the year in today's interleague game against the White Sox. He sports an outstanding 10.29 K/9 inning rate and he has a 1.29 ERA. There is no question that Street can be a very effective closer as long as he can avoid the injuries that have plagued his career. His high water mark for saves is 35 so this could be the year that he produces over 40. His peripherals do not support this level of performance going forward, as his xFIP stands at 2.73 and he has an otherworldly 98.5% LOB rate. The crazy thing is that Street was able to sustain a LOB rate of 99.5% for the entire year in 2013 so the man is great at keeping runners from scoring. Some of that may be that the runners that do score do so by way of the HR ball, which he serves up at an 11.1% rate, but still there is something magical going on here for Street and his owners.

Domonic Brown (OF-Phillies)

The saga of Domonic Brown continues with rumors flying in the face of denials by the Phillies front office that they will be sending Brown to the Minors. He is really struggling this year. I think many in the baseball community had some reservations about Brown sustaining the 19.4% HR/FB rate that marked his breakout season last year, but no one expected the 7% rate that he is languishing at now. While he did launch his 4th HR and of the season in tonight's game, his average fly ball distance of 263 feet suggests that we should not expect a turnaround anytime soon. He has a 1.7 GB/FB rate this year which is another strong indicator of his problems at the plate. His .202 BA has been depressed by a .232 BABIP but a boost in average is not going to restore his value. Unless he can magically retrieve his HR power in the next week or two, and he does have the tendency to be a streaky power hitter as we learned last year, I think a stint in the Minors might do him some good.

Emilio Bonafacio (2B-Cubs)

Emilio Bonafacio leads the Cubs in batting with a .274 average entering today's game. His 1-5 outing today keeps him in the #1 tied with Starlin Castro. Need I say more about the state of affairs with the Cubs offense this year. Bonafacio's outstanding BA to start the season is a distant memory and we are seeing more of who Emilio really is. Now any player who has the potential to steal 40 bases has value in fantasy and Emilio's 13 this year puts him right on that pace. He has a very strong predilection to hit the ball on the ground which for someone with his speed is a good thing most of the time. His 7.1% IFH rate is below his career 10% average so it is likely that we will see some better results from his GB focused game over the next few months. We just need to remember that Bonafacio is a career .260 hitter and he has a rather pitiful offense behind him. The reality is that he will not get anywhere near 100 runs scored as a leadoff hitter on this club, so his value will be in his legs which most of us already knew.

Marcell Ozuna (OF-Miami)

Marcell Ozuna demonstrated good power production in the Minors especially in his final two complete seasons in 2011 and 2012 where he averaged 24 HR. In 200 PA's in the majors last year, he hit a total of 3 HR although he was able to manage a lower K% than he had shown in the minors. This year his K% is back up to 23% from 19.6%, his LD% is down from 21.1% to 14.4%, but his FB% is up by 7% and his HR/FB% has soared from 4.2% to 16.7%. With 9 HR already on the season, it seems certain that he has recaptured his power stroke and the increase in FB% will help him maintain a much better HR pace. However, he is poor contact hitter at 69% so with an elevation in K% and his low LD%, he looks to be no better than a .250 to .260 hitter. Ozuna was 0-4 in tonight's game. His power will make him usable in mixed leagues, but be sure that you can cover his BA which may even drop further from his current .257 mark.

@stevietheshu This is just a small sample of our daily analysis, join our member area for more premium content: http://www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3

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Player Commentary
May 30, 2014
Steve Shumansky

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