Josh Tomlin (SP-CLE). Tomlin continued to pitch in bad luck in a no-decision against the Royals on Friday night, as he gave up 4 runs (3 earned) over 5.1 innings. Tomlin gave up 7 hits and struck out 5 and walked none. Tomlin's ERA on the season is now an ugly 4.47, but better days should be ahead for the finesse righty. Tomlin's numbers are being inflated by a 61.5% strand rate and a 15.7% HR rate. Tomlin is a flyball pitcher, so the high HR rate is even more damaging. Even with no improvement in the HR rate, Tomlin's ERA should be half a run lower, and if he could somehow get the HRs under control (although he gave up 2 more dingers tonight to a Royals squad that is not exactly known for its ability to hit HR), he could post an ERA in the low 3s, as evidenced by his 3.13 xFIP. Tomlin has shown real gains in his ability to generate punchouts (21.2% K rate this year versus 14.8% career), which improvement seems sustainable, as he has increased his swinging strike rate to 9.3%, an increase which seems to be tied to Tomlin's increased use of his curveball. Although there is a tendency among fantasy players to scoff when Tomlin's name is mentioned, there are the makings of a serviceable back of the rotation fantasy starter here. Until Tomlin demonstrates a better ability to keep the ball in the park, however, I would only recommend using him in large ballparks against weaker offenses (although even that may not be advisable, as tonight's start would have satisfied those criteria, and Tomlin still couldn't keep the ball in the park).
Jason Hammel (SP-OAK). Hammel's return engagement in the AL continued to go poorly, as he suffered his third straight loss since joining the A's. Hammel lasted only 5.2 innings against the thoroughly unintimidating Rangers, giving up 4 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits and 2 walks while striking out only 3. While his performance since returning to the AL has to be somewhat concerning for Hammel owners, they still have to be pleased with what they have received this year, since even with the plus-7 ERA since joining the A's, his season ERA still sits at a solid 3.41, a vast improvement over the 4.97 ERA he put up as a member of the Orioles in 2013. The improvement from last year is supported by the fact that Hammel is striking batters out at a career-high 23.3% rate, which is supported by a 10.5% swinging strike rate that is more than two points higher than his career rate. This increase in strikeout ability appears to be the result of Hammel's increased usage of his slider, which he is throwing 32% of the time this year (almost double his career usage rate). The fact that the increase in Ks appears to be the result of a change in Hammel's approach indicates that these improvements may be sustainable, at least for this year (although the increased slider usage could take a toll on Hammel's arm in the long run). Hammel should continue to provide solid value for his owners for the rest of the season, although not as solid as would likely have been the case had he remained in the NL.
Jason Kipnis (2B-CLE). Kipnis went 0 for 4 with an RBI in the Indians' loss to the Royals on Friday, dropping his season line to .247/.327/.350(!). It has been quite a disappointing performance for a player who many were arguing was a better choice as a fantasy 2B than Robby Cano. Kipnis has provided some value with 15 SBs, but his other counting stats (5 HR and 31 RBI) have been just as disappointing as his BA. The question is, what can owners expect from Kipnis for the rest of the year? The answer is: (i) some improvement in BA, as his current .295 BABIP is below his career rate of .312; (ii) some improvement in HRs, as his power numbers are being suppressed by a 6.6% HR/FB rate that is almost 5 points below his career rate; and (iii) continued solid numbers in the SB department (he'll probably fall short of stealing 30 or more bases for the third year in a row only because of the time he missed as a result of his DL stint). I would expect Kipnis to finish somewhere around .260 with 10 HR and 25 SBs. Solid numbers for a 2B, but not nearly what his owners expected when they spent an early round draft pick on him.
Corey Knebel (RP-TEX). Knebel, the primary return for the Rangers in the Joakim Soria trade, was sent to AAA on Friday. However, those who need to speculate for saves may want to consider stashing Knebel if they have the roster space. Although Neftali Feliz is expected to take over as the Rangers' closer (and, indeed, he picked up his first save in almost three years on Friday night), he has not been able to regain the velocity he possessed three years ago and he has benefited from some extreme good fortune on balls in play in his brief stay with the Rangers so far this year. Knebel makes for a good speculative stash as the Tigers drafted him in the first round of the 2013 draft with the idea that he could be their future closer, and his minor league numbers (1.20 ERA in AA and 1.96 ERA in AAA) with solid K/9 numbers indicate that he could well fill that role for the Rangers in the near future. Keep an eye on Feliz' performance, as a few blow ups on his part could open the door for Knebel to get a shot at the closer job.
Chris Capuano (SP-NYA). The Yankees continued to try to patch the holes in their rotation by acquiring Capuano from the Rockies and immediately inserting him into their starting rotation in place of Chase Whitley. Capuano will make his debut in pinstripes on Saturday night against the Blue Jays. This could prove to be a shrewd move by the Bombers, because, although Capuano put up a mediocre 4.55 ERA in 28 innings out of the Red Sox bullpen earlier this year, he was solid, at least from a peripherals standpoint, as a member of the Dodgers' rotation last year. Capuano's FIP and xFIP (3.55 and 3.67, respectively) indicate that he pitched much better than his 4.26 ERA would indicate and he has a chance to make a solid contribution to the Yankees. Only AL owners should give much consideration to adding Capuano to their rosters, however, as his pedestrian 6.90 K/9 rate and his fly ball tendencies (39.2% career FB rate), make him an unlikely source for positive fantasy value.
