Jimmy Nelson (SP-MIL). Nelson did not prove to be the savior the Brewers were looking for. He got absolutely drilled by the Cardinals in a 10-2 drubbing on Saturday, giving up 8 runs (6 earned) on 8 hits and 2 walks while striking out 5 over 4.1 innings. I would not abandon ship on Nelson immediately, however, as his peripherals are strong and today's result could be attributable to first start back in the majors jitters. Nelson has demonstrated elite strikeout ability, with a 26.5% K rate in AAA and a 24.0% K rate in 2 major league starts. He has exhibited a propensity to walk more hitters in the majors (12.0% BB rate in the majors versus 7.4% in the minors) but that could just be small sample size at play. He was extremely unlucky on balls in play against the Cardinals (.467 BABIP and 31.3% strand rate) and I still like his chances of putting up solid numbers on a go-forward basis. I am sticking with him in NL-only formats, as his upside in Ks far outweighs the downside risk. I would take a wait and see attitude in mixed leagues though, at least until he completes the process of acclimating himself to the major leagues.
Ryan Vogelsong (SP-SF). Vogelsong was a tough-luck loser on Sunday afternoon against the Diamondbacks, as he received no support from his offense in a 2-0 loss. Vogelsong allowed only 2 runs on 6 hits (no walks) over 6.1 innings while striking out 4. Vogelsong's ERA now sits at 3.86 for the season, which is actually a bit high, considering his 3.39 FIP. Although Vogelsong got off to an extremely rocky start this year, he has actually made significant improvement in his K rate (up 6 percent over 2013) and his BB rate (down almost 1 percent from 2013) while increasing his FB velocity by 1 MPH over 2013. As long as he is used judiciously (i.e., avoid starts in COL, PHI and ARZ) he should provide solid value for the rest of the season.
Mike Minor (SP-ATL). Minor picked up his 3rd win of the year against the Cubs on Saturday afternoon, but it wasn't pretty. Minor went 6 innings and gave up 6 runs on 11 hits and 1 walk while striking out 5. Minor has been a huge disappointment for fantasy owners this year, as his ERA now sits at 4.86 after his roughing up by a relatively feeble Cubs offense. The question is - is it time to panic if you're a Minor owner. An examination of his peripherals indicates that patience is in order. Minor's K rate, BB rate and GB rate are all roughly the same as last season (although there has been a drop in his swinging strike rate). His FB velocity is identical with last year. The big culprit for Minor has been a 16.5% HR/FB rate, which is more than 6 points higher than his career rate. Because Minor is a flyball pitcher, aberrations in HR/FB rate affect him more than most. Once his HR/FB rate normalizes, though, Minor's ERA should drop to somewhere around his 3.61 xFIP. If Minor is being made available by a frustrated owner, you should pounce on the opportunity to acquire him at a discount.
Charlie Morton (SP-PIT). Morton continues to frustrate his owners, as he was cruising with a shutout for five innings against the Reds on Saturday night and then he proceeded to gack up 5 runs in the 6th innings, to finish with a no-decision and a line of 6 innings pitched, 5 ER, 6 hits, 2 walks and 6 strikeouts. Morton seems to be one of those pitchers who consistently pitches just well enough to lose, as evidenced by his 5-9 record this year and 35-58 career record, despite a 3.32 ERA this year. Given that he does not strikeout batters at a prodigious rate (although he has shown improvement in that area this year), he is simply not worth the aggravation for me, despite his solid ERAs the last two years.
Chris Coghlan (OF-CHN). Coghlan continued to rake Saturday afternoon against the Braves, going 2 for 3 with 3 RBI. Coghlan is now slashing .269/.348/.455 for the season. While he is still not mixed league relevant, Coghlan has turned himself into a must-add in NL-only leagues, as he now has 4 HR and 4 RBI in only 166 PAs and he is starting in LF against both left and right handed pitching. He should be able to maintain his BA at its current level or slightly above, as his .313 BABIP is supported by a 23.2% line drive rate. While his inability to contribute significantly in HR and SBs limits his usefulness in mixed leagues, I recommend him highly as an add in any NL-only leagues where he is still available.
