NL Player Analysis 4-10-2015

AJ Burnett (SP-Pitts)

AJ Burnett opened his season today against the Cincinnati Reds with a no decision pitching 5.1 innings giving up 4 hits, 1 walk, and 2 ER while striking out 7. Burnett is coming off an injury riddled campaign where he pitched most of the season with a hernia that was repaired in the off-season. While Burnett is now 38, and he lost almost a mile of velocity off his fastball in 2014, he was also very unlucky last season as his Strand Rate was .68 which contributed to his bloated 4.59 ERA. Factor in his return to Pittsburgh, where he had a very nice run under the tutelage of Pitching Coach Ray Searage, and you have the potential for a rebound. Burnett still possesses a very effective knuckle curve and was able to strike out batters at a rate of 8 per 9 innings. If he can bring his swinging strike rate back up to his career 10% rate, and his Strand Rate regresses more to his norm, he will be a usable back of the rotation starter in 12 team mixed leagues this season.

Jay Bruce (OF- Cinn)

Bruce has already clubbed one HR off Francisco Liriano this first week of the season and his owners hope that this is a sign of things to come. Bruce went 0-4 in today's game against AJ Burnett a pitcher who has always had his number. An injury to his knee certainly played a big role in Bruce's very disappointing 2014 season which saw his HR total drop to 18 after blasting 30 in 2013. A BA of .217 served to make matters worse. Bruce does not profile as a high batting average guy with a career 73% contact rate, but he was hampered by a very low .269 BABIP which should adjust his BA upwards this season as he approaches his .293 career BABIP. He will need to reverse last year's 5% decrease in his fly ball rate which we can assume was caused by his injuries. At only 28, Bruce certainly has the ability to return to the performance levels he reached in the 2011-2013 seasons where he smashed a total of 96 HR's. A .260 BA and 25 HR could be the floor for Bruce in 2015.

Facing Jason Marquis on Friday, Jay Bruce makes for a good DraftKings value at $4600. Marquis has a career 4.56 ERA and did not pitch in the Majors last season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. In his last full season in 2013, Marquis had an 18.3% HR/FB rate.

Matt Harvey (SP-Mets):

In one of the most anticipated performances of this year, Matt Harvey returned to the mound today after Tommy John Surgery in October 2013. He pitched a brilliant game for the win striking out 9 in 6 innings with 1 walk and only yielding 4 hits. The encouraging signs were evident this Spring Training as he regained his velocity and was able to command his slider and change. Command not velocity is usually the last part of a pitchers arsenal to return after this type of surgery. What more can you say about a pitcher with a 12.5% Swinging Strike Rate and four plus pitches that includes an improved curveball. It is almost not fair. The only concern will be if the Mets decide to limit his innings in his first season back. We think he gets about 190 innings so he will be a top 10 pitcher with the upside to rate even higher at seasons end.

Ian Kennedy (SP-San Diego)

Ian Kennedy took the mound today against the Giants and was removed in the third inning of Thursday's start due to a left hamstring strain. He threw 33 pitches before being replaced by Odrisamer Despaigne. It is an unfortunate first start for Kennedy looking to build upon his 2014 campaign where he eclipsed the strikeout per inning threshold and produced 13 wins for a very weak San Diego offense. His 3.63 ERA in 2014 was well supported by his peripherals. While his .315 BABIP was a tad unlucky, he did benefit from a lower HR/FB rate of 7.7% than his career 9.8% average so it's fair to guess that he will pitch much like he did last season. When you factor in a revamped San Diego offense, Kennedy looks to have the potential for more wins this season. With an improved cutter to support his strong 10% swinging strike rate, and the ability to miss bats in the zone, he is a top 30 pitcher. If the suspect outfield defense provided by the addition of Upton, Kemp, and Myers doesn't kill him, he has the potential to rank even higher at the end of the season.

Stephen Strasburg (SP-Nationals)

Stephen Strasburg opened the 2015 campaign with a less than stellar performance in his duel with Matt Harvey taking the loss after giving up 3 ER on 9 hits in only 5.1 innings with 5K's. A blip on the radar in his first start. Last season was a bit of a disappointment for Fantasy owners as Strasburg produced a bland 14-10 season and the league hit .241 off of him which was a career worst performance. At 26, Strasburg is entering his prime and this season should see a major uptick in all areas. He was a little unlucky last season as his .315 BABIP was well over his career norm of 2.94. Strasburg also had an elevated 13% HR/FB rate which contributed to a 3.14 ERA. His 2.56 xFIP and .264 SIERA point to positive adjustments that should see him produce an ERA well under 3.00, a 30% K rate, and a return to the kind of performance that will make him a perennial contender for best pitcher honors in the NL.