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Fantasy Baseball Projections
Player Commentary

 
Steve Shumansky
May 12, 2015

Alex Rodriguez (DH-NYY) $3300

Alex Rodriguez has been a very pleasant surprise for Fantasy owners this season batting .243 with 8 HR's and 20 RBI's. He is experiencing some hamstring soreness so we will have to watch his performance as he missed Sunday's game with this injury. A Rod played today and was 0-3. The most amazing part of the season so far has been the 107.9 mph average bat speed on HR blasts and the 415.1 true distance which would put A Rod among the top performers in these areas. In fact, these numbers are comparable to the speed and distance he displayed in 2008 when he last hit 35 HR's. His contact rate is diminished somewhat but he was never stellar in that area even in his halcyon days. In fact there is some opportunity to improve on his BA with a depressed .257 BABIP. You would have to think that he cannot sustain this .303 ISO, a number he has not reached since he hit 54 HR's in 2007, but I'm not sure I'm willing to bet against him. While he is swinging the bat with this authority, he makes a solid FanDuel play tomorrow at $3300.

Steve Pearce (1B- Baltimore)

Steve Pearce had his 6th start at second base on Tuesday against the Blue Jays. He was 0-3 in the game. Pearce has also manned 1B and the outfield this season for the Orioles as Jimmy Paredes will continue to serve as the designated hitter while Delmon Young will play right field and Travis Snider will play left. Pearce had an excellent 2014 where he hit 21 HR's and batted .293 in 383 PA's. This season has been the mirror opposite as he has struggled out of the gate to the tune of a .176 BA and has only 2 HR's in 22 games. The main culprit has been a microscopic .208 BABIP and a severe drop in his ISO from .263 to .099. With injuries to Jonathan Schoop and Ryan Flaherty, Pearce has been called upon to man 2nd base for the first time in his MLB career which cannot be a comfortable adjustment for him. Now eligible in the MI in many leagues, Pearce has a chance to retain some value if he can rebound at the plate but he has only 3 hits in his last 8 games played.

Carlos Rodon (SP-CWS)

Carlos Rodon seems to have supplanted Hector Noesi in the White Sox rotation after a sterling effort on Saturday against the Reds, striking out eight batters and yielding only two runs over six innings. The 22-year-old lefty is a must-own in all mixed fantasy leagues. He was the #3 overall pick in the 2013 June Amateur Draft and has made a very quick ascent through the organization. He possess an electric fastball at almost 95 mph and a slider that appears to be an effective pitch that he throws 33% of the time. Rodon will need to control his walks which was a problem for him in the minors and was an issue again in his first start. We are dealing with a very small sample size, but it is almost guaranteed that his stuff will prove to be better than his results in the early going. He starts again on Friday against the A's.

Jimmy Paredes (DH-Baltimore) $3400

Jimmy Paredes has been with 4 organizations in his 8 year professional career and his results have been poor until this year. In 19 games with the Orioles he is batting .357 with 5 HR's and 18 RBI's. Paredes was 1-4 with 2 RBI's in today's game. He is this year's Steve Pearce for the Baltimore ball club and is likely to suffer the same fate as he comes back to earth. Paredes has never had an ISO that was even 50% of his current .303 so the chances of this power display lasting are very small. In addition, he is sporting a .421 BABIP which is not sustainable. With a career 72% contact rate, we can see this Cinderella story ending quite soon, but it is worth riding Paredes while he is hot. Paredes is only 26, and does have decent bat speed, so he has a better chance than Pearce of retaining at least some of his gains. While he is hot, Paredes makes for a solid play at $3400 in FanDuel tomorrow.

Jose Bautista (OF-Toronto)

Jose Bautista returned to the Toronto lineup today as he recovers from a shoulder injury. He was 1-4 with a double in today's game. Bautista is coming of a banner 2014 season where he smacked 35 HR's his highest total since the 43 he hit in 2011. This season he has been hampered by injuries and some poor luck. His .242 BABIP leaves him with a .219 BA on the year and he has only 5 HR's. He is also striking out at career high 23% which may be the result of his balky shoulder contributing to a 6% decrease in his contact rate. Fortunately, Bautista's bat speed has remained elite. He has a career high 52% FB rate in the early going, so once he returns to full health, the HR/FB rate of 13% will elevate to a more normal 18-20% range and 30+ HR's are on the horizon at the end of the year.

@stevietheshu

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Player Commentary
May 12, 2015
Steve Shumansky

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