AL Player Analysis - June 22, 2015

Brett Cecil

Cecil's recent struggles continued Sunday, as he took the loss, giving up four runs in two-thirds of an inning, and taking the loss as a result. Cecil came in in a non-save situation, and has now given up multiple runs in each of his last three outings. He's given up runs in five of his last six outings in general and has seen his ERA balloon from 2.65 all the way up to 5.96. Cecil has been a bit snake bitten in recent outings, but his control has really slipped. After walking just four batters in his first 21 outings, Cecil has walked five batters in those last six tough outings. The flip side of that seeming loss of control is that Cecil still has some strong peripherals. His opposition line drive rate is just 15.8 percent, and he has been victimized by a nearly-double-his-career-rate HR/FB rate of 22.2 percent. As a result, his FIP is still a manageable 4.56. As we all know, closers don't get the leeway that starters get mostly thanks to their lack of total innings that can eat away at a fluky ERA. Cecil is still worth holding on to, but seeing as he's walking a tight rope to hold onto the closer's roles, he should be walking a tight rope for fantasy rosters.

Leonys Martin

Martin hit his fifth home run of the season on Sunday, and when considering his 12 steals is starting to draw fantasy players' attention again. Martin's biggest drawback this season has been his average, which has dropped from a respectable .274 in 2014, to a tough-to-still-roster .239 in 2015. At first blush, it might seem that Martin is bound for some positive regression, as his BABIP has slid from .336 last season (and .316 for his career) to .280 in 2015. However, a lot of that slide can be explained by his batted ball profile has changed quite a bit this season. Martin's line drive rate is a career-low 16.8 percent, down five percent from last season, and four percent from his career rate. He's also hitting fewer ground balls than ever before, and for a slap hitter like Martin, the fewer line drives and ground balls he's hitting, the lower his value is. The small increase in home runs that will come from the increase in his fly ball rate is not worth nearly the drop in value from his new batted ball profile. Until Martin starts hitting more line drives and ground balls, he's not worth a roster spot.

Chris Young

The Chris Young Regression Train may have left the station on Sunday, as Young gave up seven runs in 4.2 innings, with three Red Sox leaving the yard on him. Young has always been a FIP-beater, but his 1.49 FIP-ERA was due for a bit of regression. Young has a 0.66 ERA-FIP for his career, and had a 1.37 ERA-FIP last season. Chris Young really needs to be an ERA champ to be worth a spot on fantasy rosters, as his strikeout rate is among the worst in the majors (5.80 K/9), and while the Royal offense can pick him up on some days, it won't be able to handle too many days like the one Young had today. Young's opponent BABIP - even after Sunday's game - is a miniscule .203, and his left on base rate is 79.3 percent. Both those figures are among the luckiest in baseball this season, and although Young has shown some ability to limit hard contact through the years, those numbers are an extreme.

Mookie Betts

Betts continued his hot streak, and is hitting .594 in his last eight games with plenty of RuBIns and production. In those eight games, Betts has three home runs, eight runs, nine RBI, and a steal. Betts got prospective owners fired up with a hot spring, and a quick start to the season, but fell on hard times during May and June. Betts went against his big home/road splits in this most recent series in Kansas City, as he had been struggling outside of the friendly confines of Fenway for much of 2015. Heading into Sunday, Betts was slugging .512 at home versus .355 on the road, even including his recent success in Kansas City. The Red Sox have shown plenty of patience with Betts, and his batted ball profile and projections certainly make it look like a good decision. Betts has a good eye for a young hitter, and has an impressive contact rate to boot. Betts should continue to produce around the level his slashes are sitting at right now (.277/.329/.453), and if he's hitting home runs (three in the last eight games) and stealing bases (he has at least three every month), Betts has lots of value.

Byron Buxton

Buxton got his first career hit at Target Field on Sunday, reaching base twice (once by error), and showcasing his speed with his first professional steal as well. Buxton is still hitting just .120, but he has reached base two other times by errors that were almost certainly influenced by Buxton's speed. On Sunday, it was Jake Arrieta who appeared to be rushed getting off the mound and bobbled the ball allowing Buxton to reach first safely in his first at bat. If Buxton can get on base with a bit more regularity, he should be a demon on the basepaths, but getting on base has been a challenge for Buxton so far. Buxton has been behind 0-2 in nearly every at bat. Opposing pitchers have been working Buxton backwards (breaking balls when behind in the count, fastballs when up 0-2) in his early days, and he has struggled mightily to adjust. The adjustment period is natural, and Buxton has shown a tendency to struggle for a few weeks whenever he jumps up a level throughout his minor league career, before really taking off shortly after. The big leagues are obviously a different ball game, but if he starts to heat up (certainly not a given the way he has looked at the plate right now) he's worth a pick up even in the shallowest of leagues. Most owners who grabbed Buxton earlier this season are likely still holding on to him, but if he is available if he puts together even a couple straight multi-hit games he's worth an immediate pick up.