DFS Picks:
Mark Buehrle (SP-TOR) - Nick Martinez is no match for Mark Buerhle and the Blue Jays. Over his last five games, Buehrle is 2-0 with two complete games. In four of those five starts, he has given up two runs or fewer. With Buehrle on a hot streak, Texas should be cupcake matchup. At home, Buerhle owns a 3.38 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Despite his 83.6 MPH fastball, Buehrle's BABIP is only .288. This reasonable BABIP should play well against Texas, who has the seventh lowest BAA lefties this season (.235). Also, Buehrle will likely receive plenty of run support. At home, the Blue Jays are averaging 5.76 runs per game. This should be more than enough to help Buehrle pick up his eighth win of the season. FanDuel Value Pick $7,600
Yoenis Cespedes (OF-DET) - Yoenis Cespedes is Jose Quintana's worst nightmare. In 12 career at bats against Quintana, Cespedes has four home runs, two doubles, nine RBIs, and no strikeouts. Usually, I like to choose DFS picks based on contact rates and surrounding hitters. In this case, Cespedes should be automatic. His .692 OBP and 1.833 SLG against Quintana are unreal. If you don't pick Cespedes on Friday, you better have a worthy replacement. FanDuel Price $3,700
J.D. Martinez (OF-DET) - J.D. Martinez is on a roll. In the Tigers 8-7 loss against the White Sox on Thursday, Martinez went 1 for 5 with a two run home run. This home run marked Martinez's ninth home run of the month. In 79 at bats in June, Martinez has averaged a home run once every 8.78 plate appearances. His 23 RBIs in 20 games this month means he's averaging more than an RBI per game. With Martinez red-hot at the dish, serious DFS consideration is warranted. Only Albert Pujols and Giancarlo Stanton have hit more home runs this month. With Martinez's next matchup coming against Jose Quintana on Friday, a Tigers stack might be in order. Quintana is a good pitcher, but between Rajai, Davis, Victor Martinez, Yoenis Cespedes, and Miguel Cabrera, Quintana has a .418 BAA. Throw J.D. Martinez into the mix, and the Tigers have an outstanding five-player core for tomorrows DFS matchup. FanDuel Price $3,800
Bonus Pick:
Taijuan Walker (SP-SEA) - Taijuan Walker's fantasy value is on the rise. Over his last five games, Walker has accumulated 35.1 innings pitched and 38 strikeouts. During this stretch he has only allowed eight earned runs. Normally I'm a little cautious when Walker pitches on the road due to his 7.03 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. In this instance, I'm not worried. In his last two starts away from Safeco Field Walker is 2-0 with 12 strikeouts and a 1.38 ERA. He'll face the Angels on Friday, whose offense relies on Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. This season, the Angels have the 8th worst team batting average and 10th lowest run total in all of baseball. As long as Walker's control is satisfactory, he should cruise to a win. FanDuel Value Pick $7,800
Splits:
Carlos Rodon (SP-CHW) - Despite allowing four runs in five innings to the Tigers, Carlos Rodon didn't get the loss. Luckily for Rodon, Alfredo Simon gave up five runs in 6.1 innings. Had the White sox bullpen held down the fort, Rodon would've picked up his first win on the road. Away from U.S. Cellular, Rodon is 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA and a .327 BAA. For some reason, he is the polar opposite at home. At U.S. Cellular, Rodon is 3-0 with a 2.39 ERA and a .216 BAA. DFS players beware. If Rodon is on the road, you might want to give him a day off. However, if he pitches at home, then it's time to pay up.
Eduardo Rodriguez (SP-BOS) - Who knows what to expect from Eduardo Rodriguez these days. In four of his six outings, Rodriguez has allowed one run or fewer. He has collected wins in three of those four starts. In his other two starts, Rodriguez has allowed 15 earned runs in 8.1 innings pitched. On Thursday, the wheels fell of the wagon. Over the course of 3.2 innings, Rodriguez surrendered six runs on seven hits to the Orioles. To be fair, both of his poor outings have come at Fenway, so maybe he just doesn't like to pitch at home. On the road his ERA is 0.45 in 20.0 innings. Comparatively, his ERA at home is 9.39 in 15.1 innings. The next time Rodriguez pitches on the road make sure he is in your starting lineup. The sample size is small, but his heavily contrasting splits may indicate an important trend.
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Time Frame: Season
