Drew Smyly (SP, TB): Smyly was solid but unspectacular against the Jays, pitching five and two-thirds innings while allowing two runs with a walk and four strikeouts. He managed to get his ERA under five, although 4.98 is nothing to write your mom about. It's been a big disappointment of a season for Smyly, who has managed to been a terrible play despite starting 28 games for a career high 164.1 innings. His strikeouts have ticked way down from the 10.40 K/9 he posted a year ago across 12 starts, down to an 8.71 rate this year. His swinging strike rate is down a bit, but his 10.8% rate this season still points towards a K per inning. He's getting fewer swings out of the zone than a year ago, but he still has strikeout upside beyond what he's shown this season. His biggest problem, however, has been the long ball; he's always been a bit homer-prone, with a career HR/9 of 1.22, but this year it's up to a whopping 1.70 mark. That was his problem in this start as well, as a Russell Martin two-run homer accounted for the damage against him. He's a fly ball pitcher, which should work out when you're in spacious Tropicana, but too many of those fly balls have turned into runs instead of outs. He'll be an interesting player to watch next year, as he should come cheap and carry nice strikeout upside. He faces the Yankees at home in his next start.
Jose Altuve (2B, Hou): Altuve went 3-4 from the three hole, hitting his 24th home run of the season in the fourth inning off of Rangers starter AJ Griffin. His stolen base production has really suffered over the season half of the season as he's transitioned from a leadoff bat to a run producer hitting third every day; he was 23-26 in stolen base attempts in the first half of the season, but only 4-8 in the second half. As crazy as it sounds to complain about an MVP caliber season, those who were depending on Altuve to net them 35+ steals have been grasping at straws to come up with those totals in roto leagues over the second half of the season. It's fair to question his stolen base upside as we look towards 2017, and it largely hinges upon where he bats in the lineup. The overall value has risen substantially though, with a .340/.400/.550 slash line and 24 home runs that are far and away a career high. Now coming into his prime years, he'll be a top half of the first round player off of draft boards next season.
Kevin Kiermaier (OF, TB): Kiermaier is doing his best to make sure I'm not the only one that puts him on a sleeper list next year. Back on August 19th I speculated that he'd be a 2017 sleeper for me, and at that point he had seven homers and 12 steals. In less than a month since then he's hit four home runs and stolen six bags while boosting his batting average by 28 points, from .219 to .247. He's still only been caught stealing twice on the season, and has consistently been hitting second in the order for the Rays since the start of August. He's not a huge OBP asset, but has managed to up his walk rate to 10% this season for the first time in his MLB career. His spot in the lineup should allow for plenty of run scoring opportunities, and in a year where stolen bases are down, he has some very nice steal appeal for these final few weeks. With a 40% fly ball rate and whopping 49% pull rate, the home runs could keep coming as well. Ride him while he's hot, and give him a look next draft season as well.
AJ Griffin (SP, Tex): Griffin had a strong start against the Astros, yielding only two runs in seven innings, striking out seven. The Astros do strike out a lot though (third most in baseball behind only Milwaukee and San Diego), so that assuredly had a bit to do with the padded K total. Griffin has had a solid K/9 of 8.12 this year, but that's the only good news. The bad news is that he has a 3.19 BB/9, 38% hard contact rate, and 2.07 HR/9 over 21 starts. That has led to an ERA that is actually fortunate to be only be as high as it is, at 4.78; his FIP of 5.55 based on a .266 BABIP and 78.7% strand rate thinks he has a bit of regressing to do even from that upper-fours ERA. The scariest part of the profile is all the hard contact and home runs allowed, and until he can limit those aspects of his game, he should be avoided. His next two starts line up at home against the Angels and the Brewers.
Matt Boyd (SP, Det): Boyd hadn't allowed more than three earned runs in 11 starts coming into Tuesday's contest with the Twins, but that streak came to an end as he was lit up for seven earned runs on eight hits and a walk in three and two-thirds innings. Boyd has been a serviceable back-end fantasy starter over the second half of the season, with a 2.63 ERA in 51.1 second half innings coming into the game. He had also improved his strikeout rate by over a batter per inning and reduced his walk rate by a batter as well, making for a decent 15.2% K-BB rate. There was some regression due here though, as his FIP coming into the game was 4.61 and his ERA sat below four at 3.89. His ERA skyrocketed to 4.43 with this start, and he needs to work on keeping the ball in the yard. He's got a 1.51 HR/9 rate, which is going to lead to a lot of rough outings, no doubt. He's nothing more than a streaming option at this point. He'll have to face his fears in his next start, taking on this same Twins lineup once again.
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