Grady Sizemore: In his third full major league season, Sizemore has taken a step back. His power is down; 28 home runs, 11 triples, and 53 doubles in 2006 vs. 23 home runs, 3 triples, and 29 doubles in 2007, despite having an identical 47% FB%. He is still only 25 years old and has not yet entered his prime years for power, so it shouldn't be too much of a concern. It is also nice that he has improved his BB% to 13.3% up from 10.6% last year. At some point the Indians will have to realize that he is not a leadoff hitter. His power, low Ct% of 75%, and high FB% should have him batting third or fourth in the order.
Joe Mauer: Mauer has followed up his monster 2006 season, 13/84/.347, with an injury-plagued, but still productive 2007, 5/53/.294. Mauer's power did not continue to grow as it had the previous two seasons. We will not know until next season whether it was the injuries that caused his GB% to grow to 54% in 2007 from 49% last year or the normalization of his 25% LD% from 2006. He has the size, 6-4, 220lbs, and at just 24 years of age, there is still time for the power to develop. The good news is that his approach at the plate remains elite, 87% Ct% and a 1.17 BB/K, so even if the power doesn't progress, he will still be good for a high batting average at a thin position.
Joe Nathan: Although Nathan remains in the elite category of closers, 1.94 ERA and 29 saves in 32 tries, it is not hard to notice that his K/9 has dropped, 2004/2005/2006/2007 K/9's of 11.1/12.1/12.5/9.3. He has compensated with improved control and by inducing a few more groundballs, 2005/2006/2007 BB/9's of 2.8/2.1/1.6 and GB%'s of 37%/36%/40%. Considering that he turns 34 years-old in a couple of months, the question is whether this is the beginning of an age-related decline or a change in his approach? That question will be better answered in 2008.
Jered Weaver: Weaver's sophomore campaign, 11-6 and a 3.76 ERA, is producing good numbers but are a far cry from his dominant rookie season, 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA. Part of the reason is regression in two key areas, 2006/2007 K/9's of 7.7/6.4 and BB/9's 2.4/2.7. Another reason is the extreme luck that he enjoyed last year, .188 BHIP% and an 82% strand rate, has somewhat normalized this year, .265 BHIP% and a 76% strand rate. Weaver has shown an increased ability to induce ground balls, 2006/2007 GB%'s of 30/36% and a FB%'s of 52%/47%, which has helped him cutback on the longball, 15 home runs allowed in 123 innings in 2006 vs. 14 home runs allowed in 139 innings this year. But as a fly ball pitcher with depressed HR/FB%'s in his first two seasons of 8.4% and 6.7%, it could be a problem that manifests next year. Weaver turns 25 years-old in October, so there is time for him to show the amazing strike out ability that he displayed in the minors, but he has been replaced by some of the other exciting young arms as the pitchers best ticketed for stardom.
Jonny Gomes: There is no question that Gomes has legitimate power, 15 home runs and 15 doubles in 284 AB, fully supported by a 53% FB%, but with such a poor approach at the plate, 67% Ct% and 8.1% BB%, it is doubtful that he will emerge as an everyday player. With a 13.7% BB% in 2006, there is hope that Gomes can recover that skill next year, but his history does not inspire much confidence that he can improve his contact rate, 2005/2006 Ct%'s of 67%/70%. His batting splits against left-handed/right-handed pitching, 2005/2006/2007 batting averages against left-handers of .288/.297/.281 and right-handers of .279/.187/.214, suggest that a strict platoon may be in his future.
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