Carlos Pena:
Pena just keeps adding to his monster season as he hit another 2 HR's on Saturday night against the Red Sox. Pena knocked out his 41st and 42nd HR's of the season in 2-3 effort that came with 4 RBI's. Pena's improvements have been pretty dramatic across the board as he's raised his FB% to 63% and improved his EYE to .67, buoyed by a dramatic increase in his BB Rate (up to 15%). While his HR's/FB Ratio looks dramatically high at around 28%, he has maintained this type of level before. Everything looks pretty legitimate from Pena who has been an absolute steal for fantasy owners this season and I have a feeling will be a bit undervalued heading into next season because owners view this as a fluke. Pena was once considered one of the most "can't miss"prospects around and with the improvements he's made this year suggesting he's finally "figured it out", I'm willing to bet another 40+ HR season is in his future in 2008.
BJ Upton:
Upton is probably one of the best example of "regression to the mean"that we can focus in on. We've been suggesting throughout the season while Upton hovered around .320 that his batting average was being artificially inflated by some good luck with batted balls in play. We've even suggested that Upton's "true level"of batting average performance was probably closer to the .270's-.280's. After an 0-4 evening on Saturday, Upton's batting average is back down to .303. A closer look reveals Upton has hit right at .270 each of the last 2 months, which is what we've suggested is his true level of performance. Herein lies what we refer to as a regression to the mean. When we talk about a regression we're not talking about a player's totals nose-diving towards their "true levels", we're simply suggesting a player *should* perform at his true level from here on out. Now when you're at .320 the longer you hit .270, the closer it will eventually drive the total average down to .270. That's the case here with Upton and while his total numbers will likely finish right around .300, he'll be "slightly"overvalued next season for those owners that think he'll be a contributor in batting average as well as the power and speed categories. Upton's going to be a terrific player next season one way or the other because of the tremendous power-speed combo and the ability to utilize him at 2B, but understand his poor EYE and high K Rate limits his batting average upside and will likely keep him in the .270-.280 range throughout his career.
Nick Markakis:
In the fantasy wasteland that is Baltimore at least there's Nick Markakis. Markakis went 3-5 with his 21st HR of the season and knocked in 5, raising his RBI total to 108. Markakis has made some nice improvements this season raising his FB% from 49% to 55% and raising his extra base hit % from 8.7% to 10.8%. He's also running a lot more this year, with 17 SB's in 23 attempts, which is significantly raising his value heading into 2008. While I'm not sure this much speed can be expected going forward, I think the power will continue to develop as Markakis moves towards a consistent .295-30-110 type hitter.
Mark Ellis:
Not much has been made of Mark Ellis' big season but it continued on Saturday night with his 19th HR of the season. Ellis has seen some really genuine increases in his power numbers this season thanks to an increased 69% FB % that's really driving his power numbers. Ellis hasn't made too much improvement in his EYE which combined with the increased FB%'s should sacrifice some batting average (as seen by his .275 average), but he looks to be settling in as a .270-20-80 option out of 2B and of course since he's playing on the west coast and doesn't have a big name attached to him, he comes with some nice value.
Nick Swisher:
Swisher returned from his suspension on Saturday night and did so in nice fashion going 3-5 with 2 Runs and 2 RBI's. Fantasy owners playing in their finals matchups couldn't have been too happy to see Swisher become one of the first MLB players this season not to appeal their suspension. Regardless he's back and has resumed swinging the hot stick he had before the suspension. Swisher's made some really strong improvements this year in his K Rate and his BB Rate but his overall numbers are suffering from some poor luck with FB's leaving the yard. Look for him to offer some fantastic value next season when he'll get back to the 25-35 HR potential he truly has.
