Homer Bailey - Homer Bailey was pretty far ahead of Johnny Cueto in the pecking order this time last year, but it appears that Cueto has passed him this spring, as Dusty Baker seems inclined to give Cueto the third rotation slot coming out of camp. This would leave Bailey, Matt Belisle, Edinson Volquez, and Josh Fogg battling for the last two spots, and right now I'd have to say that Bailey is the least likely of the four to have a spot right out of the gate. If I were drafting solely for 2008, and quite possibly if I were drafting long-term, I would focus on Cueto over Bailey right now, primarily due to the significantly better control on Cueto's part.
Jeremy Accardo - Even if B.J. Ryan progresses perfectly on his extremely quick return from Tommy John surgery, Jeremy Accardo is still going to pick up a few save opportunities in the early going, which makes him a decent end-game pickup. The likelihood of Ryan being able to pitch on back to back days right out of the gate is minimal at best, so keep Accardo (1.83 ERA and 20 saves after the break last year) in the back of your mind.
Joba Chamberlain - I'd say it's almost a foregone conclusion that Chamberlain will open the season in the bullpen and end the season in the rotation, barring injury of course. Last season's infamous "Joba rules" are no longer in effect, but the Yankees are cognizant of the "injury nexus" that seems to exist in a pitchers' early 20's, and don't want Chamberlain to have a substantial jump in his innings pitched this season. The estimate of an innings cap seems to be in the 140 neighborhood, leading me to believe that he could be expected (roughly) to pitch in relief for two months and start for four, but injury or poor performance from one of the other five starters could certainly circumvent that line of thought. Chamberlain is a very solid young pitching prospect, but he isn't the invincible superhero that he appeared to be for a few months last summer. Expect people to be disappointed in the solid performance that they get this year, which might provide an enterprising owner with an opportunity to grab him a bit more cheaply than one might expect.
Chris Capuano - Looks like Drew was on to something last week when he proclaimed his hesitancy to invest much in Capuano right now despite a likelihood of a bounceback, as the Brewer lefty removed himself from the game early yesterday with elbow soreness. There is so much competition for the back-end of the Brewer rotation that I'd be surprised if Capuano doesn't open the season either on the DL or in AAA with this new news. Oft-injured Manny Parra is the highest upside guy that might benefit from this.
Dana Eveland - Dana Eveland is inching closer and closer toward winning the A's fifth starter's spot, which makes him a bonafide sleeper in many formats. Eveland's career minor league line consists of a 2.61 ERA and 8.84 K/9 in 414 IP, so he clearly has enough stuff to warrant some excitement. The only competition he has left for the spot is Lenny DiNardo, and with a 1.20 ERA this spring, I'd bet on Eveland grabbing the spot as it stands right now.
Jonathan Sanchez - Looks like Sanchez is finally going to get a shot at a rotation slot while Noah Lowry is out, so yet another pitcher with extremely high upside looks to be a lock for playing time right out of the gate. Exciting stuff. Sanchez has struck out almost 12 men per nine in the minors, and has managed over a batter per inning in his 92 major league frames, so the stuff is there to be sure. His control is awfully spotty, so his hold on the job is going to be tenuous, but if like late-round fliers with upside, he has to be on your list. The unfortunate state of the Giant offense needs to temper your enthusiasm a bit, however.
Bartolo Colon - There's been a lot of buzz about Colon after his velocity returned to the mid-90's, but after the Yankees knocked him around in two-thirds of an inning yesterday, it all but guaranteed that the big guy will open the season in the minors trying to build up his arm strength. He still could be considered a sleeper, as he has to be on the major league roster by May 1st or be released, but I'm extremely skeptical of his ability to both hold up physically and pitch well at the same time.
Zach Duke - Even though Duke pitched five scoreless innings yesterday, he shouldn't be an option for you in any format. Duke's K rate has dropped precipitously since his excellent 2005 debut, and even yesterday when he was throwing to the top of his capabilities he was only able to strike out one batter. There is just no way that a K/9 of around 4.0 is going to result in consistent success, especially when you're pitching in front of the Pirate offense. He cannot be recommended without a severe increase in his strikeout rate, and the likelihood of that happening is extremely minimal.
Jayson Nix - Jayson Nix continues to make a bid for playing time in Colorado, and that phrase is usually music to all fantasy players' ears. The 25 year old is certainly not a big-time prospect, and he may very well hurt your AVG if he gets enough playing time, but he has modest power and solid speed, and did I mention this was Colorado? As a late-game pick, you could certainly do worse.
Luis Mendoza - A wealth of fifth starter candidates are solid sleeper picks late in the draft this year, but Mendoza is not one of them. He's basically a one-pitch guy (fastball), and as a starter that just plain doesn't work, as evidenced by his subpar K rates in the minors (4.66 in 687 IP). He is likely to have the spot out of the gate because of Brandon McCarthy's continued injury woes, but even with the Ranger offense I wouldn't go anywhere near him on draft day.
Francisco Liriano - Liriano is exhibiting all of the typical syptoms of a Tommy John survivor thus far in camp, suffering a slight drop in velocity (89-92 in his past two outings) and a marked decrease in control. As Drew mentioned last Sunday, the recovery process has become standard enough for most players to assume that Liriano will not get to his maximum post-injury form until the second half of this year. Judging from how optimistic people seem to be in drafting Liriano this spring, the best tact might be to let someone else grab him with the expectation that he struggles a bit during the first half, and then to see if you can swing a deal. I would not want to overpay for Liriano this year. Next year, perhaps.
Denny Bautista - The Tiger bullpen has had more than its share of injuries so far in 2008, and with Todd Jones always appearing a bit shaky, the closer-in-waiting slot there is, well, a bit closer than most to being productive. The absence of Rodney and Zumaya leaves an opening for a guy with tremendous stuff in Bautista, and his 10 1/3 scoreless innings so far this spring are making it hard to ignore him. Although Jim Leyland has admitted to not even knowing who Bautista was when the Tigers traded for him, he has clearly been impressed by the 25 year old so far. Between Bautista and Fransisco Cruceta, there are still a couple of power arms in the Tiger pen to be reckoned with.
Rafael Betancourt - As we all know, the next best thing to grabbing a closer is picking up an excellent setup guy with a solid to chance to close at some point in the near future. Betancourt is the perfect example, as he has blossomed into a terrific setup man pitching in front of (gasp) Joe Borowski in the difficult AL Central. It is well within the realm of possibility that this is the year that Borowski completely implodes, and the bullpen that the Indians have assembled behind him is solid indeed, with Betancourt, Rafael Perez, and even Jorge Julio having a shot to fill that potential gap. Betancourt is your best bet, and thus makes an excellent end-game selection for your bullpen.
Zack Greinke - One player who has slid a bit under the radar this spring is Zack Greinke. Greinke's performance down the stretch last year left everyone with considerable cause for optimism this season, and he comes into the season as the one of the clear top three starters for a team that is slowly improving. The Royal offense certainly isn't strong enough yet that you'd want to grab him expecting double digit wins for certain, but if he can carry even 75% of his second half performance over into 2008 he could be an above average starting pitcher. I'd expect a league average K rate with above average control and ERA...probably sightly subpar in wins. Not a bad package in total, and at age 24 there's certainly room on the upside.
Brian Bannister - I would be extremely leery of Bannister this year. He's assured of a spot in a below average team's rotation, he had a year in which his peripherals (4.2 K/9, 42% GB rate) were way off from his results (fewer than 9.0 H/9, fewer than 1.0 HR/9), and he's having a rough spring. To me, every projection I've seen for him looks optimistic. Time will tell I suppose, but I would definitely be careful here.
Phil Humber - Humber is getting a shot to increase his value today, as after nine scoreless innings out of the bullpen this spring the Twins are giving him a start this afternoon. I still view him as the best candidate (looking at upside, anyway) for the fifth spot in the Twins rotation, so keep an eye on his performance today if you're looking for late-draft sleepers.
