Kyle Lohse – Lohse continues to dominate through 4 starts this season, as he pitched 7 innings giving up 2 earned runs off of 5 hits and walking none while striking out 3 versus the Brewers yesterday. Frankly, I’m as surprised as anyone. Lohse now has an ERA of 1.48 and a WHIP of 1.03 through 24 and 1/3rds IP. That is good for anyone, especially someone whose career ERA and WHIP are 4.77 and 1.428 respectively. I would have to think that Lohse is going to be awful for the rest of the season. Consider the fact that his best ever ERA at season’s end is 4.18, and that was with a WHIP of 1.427. An explanation of Lohse’s early success is his BABIP and LOB% numbers. Entering yesterday’s ballgame Lohse’s BABIP was .264 (career average of .309) and his LOB% was 90.5% (career average of 70.7%). There is no way Lohse can keep having that kind of luck, especially since his K/9 through his first 4 starts is just 3.7, which is actually less than his career average of 5.65.
Austin Kearns – A couple of weeks ago Drew endorsed Kearns as a breakout player, and I’m with him on that one. Kearns hit his first homer of the year on Tuesday, and he makes for an excellent buy low candidate, especially if you are in need of some OF help. Kearns’ current HR rate is a lowly 2.4%. This is the result of two things. First off, Kearns has put the ball on the ground a lot more so far this year. His GB/FB ratio is 2.08, up from his career average of 1.38. Secondly, his HR/FB% has dropped from his career average of 15.2% to 8.3% thus far this season. Since there is nothing to suggest that Kearns is not seeing the ball well (his EYE, which has increased the last 3 seasons, is at a whopping 1.5), I can only conclude that those statistics are a result of a small sample size. Therefore, I would expect Kearns’ HR rate to rise to around 3.9% (his established previous three year average). It might even be higher than that because, as Drew had mentioned, he is no longer playing in RFK stadium, which was very unkind to Kearns. It would not be surprising to see Kearns hit 20 or more out, and his average (currently.266) is likely to rise due to his EYE, which was discussed earlier in this blurb.
Ryan Ludwick – Ludwick hit his 4th homerun of the young season yesterday afternoon off of Manny Parra. At the time it was his 4th homer in just 37 AB, giving him a homerun every 9.25 AB’s. The good news going forward for Ludwick is that his current LD% is an amazing 48%, meaning that the .333 batting average he sported entering yesterday’s ballgame is legit so far. However, the bad news is that his FB% was just 32%, down from his career average of 47%. This means that Ludwick’s current HR/FB% is almost triple (37.4%) his career HR/FB% (13.4%). Two and a half weeks into the season is still quite a small sample size. Ludwick will certainly end up putting the ball in the air more and hitting less line drives, but there is no way he can keep homering at the rate he currently is. Don’t expect him to keep up his current average or power numbers.
Jose Valverde – Jose Valverde endured another rough outing yesterday, giving up 2 runs off of a Chris Coste homer. That is already 4 homers that Valverde has given up in just 7 and 1/3 IP. Valverde has never had a bad HR/9 for an entire season. His HR/9 last season was just .98, and even in his 5+ ERA season of ’06 his HR/9 was 1.09. We should expect that number to come down to earth. Last year, Valverde got lucky with a singles average that was 33 points below his previous 4 year average. This year, so far he has been unlucky in that category (.429 singles average). That number should drop dramatically. When both the rate at which he gives up homers and his singles average return to normal, Valverde will probably end up being a pitcher whose statistics fall somewhere between his 2006 and 2007 numbers. However, as Joe mentioned yesterday, Valverde has some issues in his head and the awful start to this season could cause Valverde’s season to continue to spiral downwards if he does not deal with it correctly, mentally speaking.
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