John Lackey – John Lackey looked good in his second straight start after returning from the disabled list. He picked up the win against Toronto, going 7 innings and allowing just one run off of 7 hits. He also walked 3 and struck out 6. However, even before his injury, I expected that Lackey may not be able to reproduce his great 2007 numbers. It all depends on his control. Case in Point: In 2005 and 2006 Lackey had ERA’s of 3.44 and 3.56 respectively, despite the fact that in each of those seasons individually he actually struck out more batters and gave up less hits and homeruns than he did last season in which he posted a 3.01 ERA. The only discernable positive difference to explain Lackey’s success is a decreased BB rate. In 2007, Lackey walked just 2.09 batters per 9 IP; In 2005 and 2006 his BB/9 were 3.06 and 2.98. If you want to know which Lackey you will be getting this season (the 2005/2006 one or the 2007 one), keep watching his next couple of starts and see what his BB rate settles down to.
Daniel Cabrera – Daniel Cabrera tossed another nice start last night, in Yankee stadium verse the Bronx Bombers, nonetheless. He picked up his 5th win of the season, allowing just 2 runs. More importantly, Cabrera walked 0 batters. Cabrera has always had talent, but he has also always had control problems. His career BB/9 is 5.14. On the surface, this year’s early success may look like it is a result of Cabrera finally harnessing his control. While it is true that Cabrera’s BB/9 this season is down to 3.58 (still pretty high), that number is coming as a result of less strikeouts as well. Cabrera’s K:BB ratio is actually the exact same as last season’s (1.54) and close to that of 2005 (1.51). So, the real reason for Cabrera’s early success is some good luck. His 3.58 ERA and 1.227 WHIP (both would be career bests by a lot) are both reflected in his BABIP, which is currently .240 (career average is .295), and his LOB%, which is currently 80.8% (career average is 69.2%). Interestingly, Cabrera’s declining K rate would make one expect those numbers to be worse than his career averages, not better. Now, Cabrera has issued just 3 walks in 4 May starts. Maybe he is really turning things around. But either way he has gotten lucky (and that luck will eventually even out), and I just don’t see him continuing to have many 0 BB games, even if he does walk less batters than in previous seasons.
Adrian Beltre – Adrian Beltre hit his 9th homer of the season last night, putting him on pace to hit 32 for the season. Over the last three seasons, since hit 48 in 2004, Beltre’s season HR totals are just 19, 25, and 26. So, will Beltre continue at his current pace and hit 30+ homers? Well, a couple of things are working in Beltre’s favor. His EYE is currently .70. When his HR totals were down the past three seasons his EYE was just .35/.40/.37. However, in his breakout 2004 season it was .61, meaning that like in 2004 Beltre is swinging at good pitches this season. The bad news is that even with his 8 HR, Beltre’s ISO power is just .193, which is less than it was the past two seasons when he failed to reach 30 homers. With that in mind, I’m going to take the under on Beltre hitting 30 out this year. He has done it just once in his career, and although his improvement in EYE is good, it is declining somewhat (.50 in May).
Gregorio Petit – Gregorio Petit has started three games in a row for Oakland at 2B. Petit was hitting .304/.356/.385 at the triple-A level before getting called up. I don’t expect that .300 average to immediately translate to the major league level, as Petit’s career minor league EYE is .41, and it is just .34 this season. Petit does have 4 hits in 11 AB to start his career, but in his other 7 AB he has struck out 6 times. He has walked just once. As for his power and speed: Petit never hit double digit HR at any minor league stop (5 seasons) and had 0 to start this season. Petit did steal 22 bases in 2006 and 10 last season, but he may not have the green light often because his career minor league success percentage was just 60%. Right now, Petit should not be considered as a fantasy option except in deep AL leagues.
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