John Lackey – I said about a month ago to watch and see what Lackey’s BB rate settles down to be in order to determine if Lackey would be the top fantasy pitcher that he was last year or just the good fantasy pitcher he was the two years prior to that. Well, Lackey has been absolutely astounding going 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA, and those numbers will improve after last night’s victory in which Lackey gave up only one run over 7.7 IP. And sure enough Lackey’s control is showing improvement for the third straight year. His BB/9 this season of 1.56 is by far the best walk rate of his career, and he walked just one last night. Lackey’s stinginess in handing out walks certainly does make him dangerous and a top fantasy SP. However, he is unlikely to sustain quite as high of a level of success as he is now for the rest of the season. Why? Well, his current BABIP of .240 and LOB% of 90.7% are very lucky numbers that are contributing heavily to Lackey’s low ERA. When those numbers normalize, an increase in Lackey’s ERA is certain. Lackey might be a good sell high candidate, especially since I don’t believe that his BB/9 can stay this low over the course of the season.
Mark Ellis - Ellis was amongst the many Oakland hitters that had a good night in last night’s 15 -1 pounding over Brandon Webb and his Arizona Diamondbacks. Ellis went 3 – 4 with 4 runs, 4 RBI’s, and 2 HR. Ellis might make for a good fantasy play at 2B in AL leagues and very deep leagues for the rest of the season. I expect to see a rise in batting average out of him. Ellis’ current singles average is .192, which is far below his three year established average of .250. Eills’ batting average will rise when his singles average normalizes, and that should most likely happen, especially when considering that Ellis is posting by far the best EYE of his career at 1.15. Hitters with an EYE over 1 are often .300 hitters. I’m not saying Ellis is a .300 hitter, but I am excited about what he can do over the second half of the season.
Jon Lester – Lester pitched wonderfully last night in Philadelphia. He picked up the win thanks to 7 scoreless innings, 1 BB, and 5 K’s. Lester’s numbers this season are better than they were either last season or the year before. Lester’s K rate has decreased (7.14 K/9 to 5.74 K/9), which is usually a sign of regression. However, increased control has allowed his K/BB to essentially stay the same, although that number (1.54) still leaves much to be desired. The big difference comes with the fact that Lester has allowed a HR/9 this season .71 times per 9 innings, whereas he allowed twice that amount over 9 innings last season. Lester has been able to improve this area by getting dramatically more ground balls. As his FB% has decreased from 46.9% to 32.6%, his GB% has increased from 34.4% to 48.7%.
Mike Mussina – Without looking at the numbers, I accidentally assumed that Mike Mussina had gotten lucky so far this year when I saw that he managed to pick up his 10th win of the season. Now, he is unlikely to keep winning games at such a high rate, but it does appear that most of Mussina’s numbers are legit this year. He is finally learning how to pitch with diminished velocity and overall stuff. His BABIP of .296 and LOB% of 67.4% indicate that his current numbers (3.87 ERA and 1.217 WHIP) are probably right where they should be. The biggest sign that Mussina has improved from last year’s dismal season is an increase in his K/BB from 2.60 to 4.18.
There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today.
