Matt Cain:
Cain was solid again on Wednesday night posting his 8th quality start in his last 10 outings and allowing 2 ER’s or less for the 7th time in that span. He limited the Marlins to just 2 ER’s on 5 hits and 4 BB’s, while striking out 4 before leaving the game in line for his 9th win of the season. Of course as has been the case with Cain throughout his young career the Win was an elusive one as Brian Wilson blew things in the 9th. While Cain has been fantastic since the beginning of July (continuing a trend of 2nd half improvements in his career), there are some warning signs here. Cain’s BB Rate has crept back up in August and with the decreased command has come some alarming increases in his pitch counts. Cain has eclipsed the 110 pitch barrier in 7 of his last 8 outings, including surpassing the 125 pitch barrier in 2 of his last 3 outings. This isn’t exactly what you want to see with a 23 year old arm. It’s unclear whether there’s a direct relationship with the loss of command and any type of fatigue, but Cain’s K Rates in August are also the lowest of any month this season. Cain’s been able to pitch around these issues of late but if the continued abuse with high pitch counts continue it may be an uphill battle for the youngster the rest of the way. As a Cain owner I'm not panicked yet by any means, but I am concerned
Manny Parra:
Just when you think he’s turned the corner with his command, Manny Parra goes out and walks 4 or more in a game. It almost seems like clockwork at this point. After a string of 20 innings in July with just 5 BB’s, Parra went out and walked 4 in consecutive outings. He then went the next 12 1/3 innings with just 1 BB, before yesterday’s start in which he walked another 4 in just 5 innings. Consistency will continue to be an issue for the youngster, but the overall trend is heading in the right direction. Take a look at Parra’s Strike % month-by-month (April – 57%, May – 60%, June – 60%, July – 61.7%, August – 63.5%). He’s showing clear improvements on the whole with his command and as we talked about before with Parra, he already possesses two of the three pitching trifecta skills (K Rate, GB Rate), the lowered BB Rate is coming in the future as well and when it does Parra will look a lot more like a #2 fantasy starter than the inconsistent spot starter he’s been much of the season.
Derrek Lee:
I hate to keep harping on this because I truly love Derrek Lee, but I feel the need to beat this into Fantistics subscribers heads so they remember come draft time next year. Lee, at age 32 is in a serious decline and is no longer a Top Tier 1B. On the season Lee has seen his GB Rate creep up near 45% (far too high for a “power” hitter), his BB Rate has dropped, his HR Rate has dropped, and his extra base hit rate has dropped precipitously from 11.6% to 10.3%. Since April, Lee hasn’t had a month in which he’s Slugged above .422. For some perspective on that number, 8th place hitters in National League lineups this year have averaged a .429 Slugging %. If you’re a Lee owner this year there probably isn’t much you can do but ride out the lack of power and enjoy the BA, R, and RBI contributions which are still above average. But for next year keep this decline in mind. The good news is there is some hope for improvement as Lee has posted his best month in EYE since his huge April, posting a 1.00 EYE through his first 57 AB’s. This suggests Lee is seeing the ball a bit better of late and is likely on the verge of breaking out of this most recent slump, unfortunately it will likely produce more 1B’s and 2B’s than HR’s compared to year’s past.
Jon Rauch:
Rauch picked up his 18th save of the season last night after Brandon Lyon’s meltdown on Monday but it doesn’t appear this is a signal of any change in the structure of the DBacks bullpen. Bob Melvin suggested he still has faith in Lyon but wanted to give him the day off after the meltdown which included 26 pitches. Rauch wasn’t perfect either allowing a solo HR in his 1 inning last night, and he’s now allowed runs in 3 of the last 4 outings while posting a 5.40 ERA in August. Of course this compares to Lyon who hasn’t posted a monthly ERA below 4.90 since May. I don’t think there is much question that Rauch is the better pitcher, but Lyon has Melvin’s faith and should continue to hold the job. Rauch could be in line for an occasional opportunity down the road and remains first in line if Lyon is removed from the role, which will only happen with a few more blown saves. Despite Lyon’s struggles, he’s still converted 9 of his last 11 save opportunities and is 25-30 on the year
Andy LaRoche:
It’s been the same confusing formula in Pittsburgh for Andy LaRoche that it was in LA. LaRoche has displayed the same great approach at the plate (1.00 EYE) in his 47 AB’s and decent power (8.5% XBH Rate), but his .105 BHIP% makes for an ugly .170/.278/.340 line. With a GB Rate above 50% it’s shocking that LaRoche has been so unfortunate on balls in play, but a shockingly low 4.8% LD Rate tells the majority of the story as LaRoche just hasn’t been squaring the ball and when he does it ends up for extra bases. In dynasty leagues he remains a solid trade target as his value probably can’t be much lower, but in most other formats he can safely remain on the waiver wire until he learns how to make more consistently strong contact with major league pitching
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