John Danks – Expect Danks to see a slight jump in his ERA as the 76% LOB% he posted last season is likely not sustainable. Other than that, though, Danks’ numbers are legitimate. He showed good control last season (2.79 K/BB), but what was most pivotal in Danks’ breakout year was transforming his GB/FB ratio from .76 in ’07 to 1.21 in ’08.
Nelson Cruz – In limited playing time last season, Cruz showed he has some pop in his bat, posting a HR rate of 5.3 in 115 at bats. Cruz had also shown flashes of power in two other brief stints, one in ’06 and one in ’07 but had horrible averages then. The main difference last season was that Cruz learned some plate discipline. His ‘06/’07/’08 EYE’s were .23/.24/.61. Cruz is a great value pick this season, as he should rack up plenty of RBI’s batting cleanup for the Rangers.
Zach Miner – Miner will temporarily be a part of Detroit’s rotation until Jeremy Bonderman returns. However, Miner offers little to no fantasy value in even the deepest of leagues. He has a terrible K rate that actually decreased last season (.53), and on top of that Miner’s GB/FB ratio dipped dramatically (from 2.04 to 1.30). His career K/BB ratio is a paltry 1.55.
Justin Verlander – There were high expectations for Verlander heading into last season, and he disappointed Detroit fans and fantasy owner a like by posting a 4.84 ERA. Verlander had severe control issues: his K/9 dropped 87 points while his BB/9 grew 91 points. Clearly, neither of those ratios is going in the proper direction. While that is definitely concerning, we should see Verlander’s ERA drop. Last season he had a very unlucky LOB% of 65.4% (his career mark is 72.1%), which contributed greatly to his high ERA.
Grady Sizemore – Look for Sizemore to put MVP type numbers this season. Last year, he had a terribly unlucky singles average of .218, which was 40 points below his three year average. When that rises this season, Sizemore will have a batting average in the .280’s. Also, Sizemore continues to increase his plate discipline year in and year out which is a very good sign. Just look at the progression from year to year in his EYE: .39/.52/.65/.75.
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