Joe Mauer (C - TWINS) - In the past 4 seasons, Mauer has averaged just under 10 HR per year (in an average of 488 at bats). Yet, this season, after going long yesterday, he now has 6 HR in 52 at bats. Extrapolated out, that would be 56 HR in a 488 at bat season. So, while Mauer's recent power surge is nice, it clearly will not continue at its current rate, especially since he continues to beat the ball in the ground. Mauer's career GB/FB ratio is 1.87, and it is 1.83 so far this season. That means Mauer's increase in power is due to a lucky HR/FB%. It was a whopping 41.7% entering yesterday's game, and his career mark is 9.7%. Fully healthy, and at age 26, it is entirely possible, perhaps even likely, that Mauer will exceed his career HR/FB%. He is entering his peak power years. So, maybe Mauer hits 15 HR, possibly 20, with his increased power, but let's not get too carried away and start calling for a 30 HR season (he needs to develop more loft before that will ever happen) based off a 14 game sample size.
David Aardsma (RP - MARINERS) - Brandon Morrow has been removed from the closer's role for the Mariners, so Aardsma, who is 4 for 4 in save opportunities and filled in for Morrow when he was on the DL, once again gets a boost in fantasy value. He figures to get the majority of save opportunities in the immediate future for the Mariners. I have a feeling his current success (1.53 ERA) will not continue. He is allowing way too many fly balls (55.8% of balls in play) but has gotten away with it thus far due to a 4.2 HR/FB% (career mark if 9.8%). Also, he is walking 5.60 batters per 9, which is exactly in line with his career average. He has been astoundingly lucky though, with a .201 BABIP and 91.4 LOB%. His career marks in those categories are .316 and 72.9% respectively. So, while opportunity gives him a boost in value, I wouldn't be surprised to see him start struggling badly sometime soon.
BJ Upton (OF - RAYS) - Upton, after not homering in his first 28 games, has now homered in 2 straight games. He should continue to show more power. Some owners might be worried that they'll get a second straight single digit HR total out of Upton, but that should not be the case. Entering yesterday's game, both Upton's 3.7 HR/FB% and 25.9 Infield Fly Ball % were well below his career marks of 11.5% and 8% respectively. As those numbers normalize, we will continue to see Upton's HR totals grow.
Alex Rios (OF - BLUE JAYS) - Rios went 1 for 4 yesterday to drop his average to .259, which is a bit dissapointing after he hit .302/.297/.291 the past three seasons. He has been a bit unlucky though, posting a .237 singles average. There is reason to thik that will rise, especially considering that Rios has consistently had a singles average in the .250's. The past three seasons it was: .258/.251/.254. This year Rios' LD% and EYE are very close to his career averages, suggesting there's nothing more to his low singles average than a bit of bad luck.
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