Brett Cecil (SP – Blue Jays)
Brett Cecil could be the best prospect of which you’ve never heard. He was called up yesterday and is slated to get the start on Tuesday. Cecil, a converted closer, plowed through 3 different levels in his first full year in the minors in ’08. Spanning the 3 levels of play, Cecil posted a 2.88 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Perhaps even more impressively, he posted a 3.15 K/BB ratio, along with a 2.28 GB/FB ratio. Cecil came into the season as the Blue Jays #3 ranked prospect, and appears to have the stuff, command, and ground ball tendencies to succeed immediately in the major leagues. The Blue Jays rotation is wide open at this point, so if he pitches adequately, he should have no problem sticking around for the duration of the season. Many people are betting on David Price and Tommy Hanson being the impact rookie arms of ’09; however, Cecil could have more immediate success than either of the aforementioned two. He is worth a pick-up in all leagues.
Josh Hamilton (OF – Rangers)
The Rangers finally decided to put Josh Hamilton on the 15-day DL yesterday, with the move being retroactive to April 27. It is probably a wise move for the Rangers to be cautious this early in the season with their slugger, so I am applauding the move. Hamilton owners were likely already growing nervous do to his slow start to the season, so this injury maybe has driven some into an all-out panic. The slow start was definitely discouraging, as it was supported by a decline in his EYE (.20) and his contact rate (69.3%). Both of these numbers are far below the peripherals that he posted the last two seasons (EYE of .51 and contact rate of 75%). He is chasing far too many pitches outside of the zone (8% increase over his two previous seasons), and his BB rate has taken quite a tumble because of this new tendency (4.3% in ’09 versus a 9.7% two-year average). Pitchers seem to have formulated a new game plan against him in ’09, as he is seeing over 6% more curveballs in ’09 than he did in his last two seasons. He is going to have to make an adjustment at the plate, and there is no question that he has the talent to successfully adjust. I am confident that Hamilton will come back strong and have another great season, and he can probably be acquired relatively cheaply from a nervous owner at this point.
Armando Galarraga (SP – Tigers)
Galarraga finally suffered the beat-down that had been eluding him thus far in ’09. He allowed 5 ER in 5 IP against the Indians on Friday night. Galarraga’s 1.85 ERA has been aided by a 88.2% strand rate and 5% HR/FB rate. However, the good news with Galarraga is that the increased Ks look to be for real. His 8.07 K/9 is a substantial improvement on his ’08 number of 6.35 K/9, but it is supported by his minor league numbers (7.9 K/9 in AAA career), as well as an increase in velocity this season. He is relying almost exclusively on his fastball and slider this season while phasing out the changeup, and the results have been a 4% increase in swings and misses. If Galarraga can reduce his walks back to his ’08 level, and maintain his increased K and GB numbers, he has a solid chance at matching what were lucky ERA and WHIP numbers last year.
Jhonny Peralta (SS – Indians)
The perpetually underrated Jhonny Peralta hit his first home run of the season on Friday night. The cause of the HR dearth has not been an inability to elevate the ball, as his FB% of 35.3% aligns nicely with his career numbers. The cause appears to be that a ridiculous 22.2% of his FB have been of the infield variety. This is not a very encouraging sign. Also, the strides that he made in reducing his K rate to 20.8% in ’08 appear to have evaporated, since it has jumped all the way to 32.9% this season. Peralta isn’t chasing pitches, in fact; he is doing just the opposite. This season, he has swung at 4% less pitches outside the strike zone than in ‘08. The issue lies with the fact that his non-swinging tendencies have been rather indiscriminate, as he is currently swinging at 7% less pitches inside the strike zone than in ’08. The early returns on Peralta do not look very promising. But, he has produced in 3 of his 4 full seasons, and since he will be turning 27 years old this season, I remain highly optimistic that he will duplicate last year’s numbers.
Adam Lind (DH – Blue Jays)
After not hitting a HR in 17 consecutive games, Adam Lind has now homered in back-to-back games. The power outage was a definite period of trepidation for Lind owners, but most importantly, the Jays didn’t lose confidence in the kid. Despite Lind cooling off, he has remained a fixture in the 5 spot in the order, which tells me all that I need to know. We’ve written about it before in this space, but the biggest threat to Lind’s fantasy production was a possible platoon role. The fact that the Jays have stuck with him through his cold spell ends all talks of a platoon in my mind. For the season, Lind has hit .321 / .345 / .464 against LHP, which is a marked improvement over his career numbers of .247 / .296 / .369. Lind’s BA will certainly come down, as he is currently enjoying a BHIP% of .312. On the other hand, his peripherals do look rather nice. His EYE has risen to .57 this season versus .25 and .27 in ’07 and ’08, respectively. Additionally, he only has 3 less walks than he had all of last season due to the fact that he is swinging at 9% less pitches outside of the strike zone. Lind seems to be unequivocally locked into an everyday role, and should continue to enjoy a breakout season in ’09.
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