Homer Bailey (SP-CIN) – Bailey’s pounding on the promo door continues to get louder by the start. Saturday, Bailey tossed a complete-game shutout for Triple-A Louisville. This after fanning 15 in his last start. Bailey is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 23:7 K:BB in 19 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, Michah Owings was reportedly topping out at 87/88 on the radar gun in his last start (5 2/3 IP, 5 ER) and Bronson Arroyo allowed nine runs two starts ago. Perhaps instead, the Reds look to fill a hole in LF and deal Bailey for a guy like Jermaine Dye or perhaps even Matt Holliday in July, but this is a major league ready pitcher here.
Justin Upton (OF-ARI) – I still think B.J.’s little brother is a year or two away from exploding and becoming a legitimate first round fantasy pick, but after sitting at .167 with no home runs through April 21, Upton has risen all the way from hitting eighth and being considered for a Triple-A stint to hitting fifth. Saturday, Upton hit his third home run since April 25, going 2-for-4 against the Brewers. Sunday, yet another HR. He’s now hitting .400 since that April 25 date. The key? Making consistent contact. Upton has a 5:5 K:BB since April 19 after opening 11:2 in that area to start the year. After talk this spring of being more aggressive on the basepaths, he’s stolen just one base, but baby steps here – let’s see consistent contact and power and then we’ll worry about the steals. With this talent, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Upton perform as a top-15 outfielder the rest of the way.
Derrek Lee (1B-CHC) – “Where has all the power gone?” is a question I often get in reference to Derrek Lee. After one homer in 80 at-bats to start the season, Lee finally went deep for the second time on Saturday and is now batting a miniscule .202/.258/.321 in 84 at-bats. He is 3-for-8 in May, and after dealing with neck spasms in April, we can only hope he’s off to a slow start. We know that the 46 homers in 2005 are going to be his high-water mark, but what we don’t know is whether he’s a 25-homer type guy these days. Lee is still just 33, but the progression in his AB/HR rate since that 2005 season is far too Helton-like: 12.9, 21.9, 25.8, 31.2, and 41 this year. The .172 OPS he put up last year is acceptable enough for a corner infielder, but it would also be nice to see him at least maintain last year’s .361 OBP/0.61 EYE, as even the EYE is down this year (0.41). I still think he’ll turn things around as long as he’s healthy. Late edit: just noticed Sunday’s grand slam, giving Lee back-to-back HR games for the first time since April 2008.
Trevor Hoffman (RP-MIL) – After missing most of April with an oblique injury, Hoffman continues to add to his major league record saves total, recording save number three on Sunday, striking out two of the three men he faced in a 1-2-3 inning against Arizona. In four games, Hoffman has allowed two hits, no walks, and has five strikeouts in four innings. Hoffman took a bit of heat last year for his supposed decline, but looking further, he actually increase his strikeout rate – from 6.9 to 9.1 K/9 while walking just nine in 45 1/3 innings. The primary reason for his un-Hoffman-like 3.77 ERA was a 1.6 HR/9, so despite the move from pitcher-friendly Petco Park, that’s a number you can expect to drop this year. He’s not a guy you can rely in for too many back-to-back appearances, but there’s no reason other than age to think that Hoffman won’t be a reliable source of saves the rest of the way.
Seth Smith (OF-COL) – The Colorado outfield is getting a bit crowded, with Brad Hawpe set as an every day player with the improvement he’s showed versus LHP (6-for-19, 2 HR), Dexter “Thief” Fowler, Ryan Spilborghs (2 HR on Saturday), and this guy, Seth Smith. Smith went 0-for-4 Saturday, but is still batting a robust .286/.444/.524 with a 1.20 EYE, three homers in 42 at-bats, and a stolen base. He’s received just three of those at-bats vs. LHP (Smith is LH) and with the three aforementioned guys ahead of Smith on the depth chart, full-time at-bats will be hard to come guy. Smith is a career .313/.379/.506 minor league hitter, though with many of those at-bats coming in hitter-favorable leagues/parks, a 32.5 AB/HR may not bode well for his future ability to land a starting gig. Still, few #4 OF’s are more valuable right now.
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