John Danks:
Since my June 1st post on Danks suggesting a buying opportunity had been created, Danks has been spectacular. His peripherals haven’t changed much in that span (.92 K Rate, .35 BB Rate compared to .90 K Rate, .36 BB Rate prior to June 6th), but the results have been vastly different. Danks spun his 4th consecutive quality start, shutting the Cubs out for 7 innings. He battled command again, walking 4 but fewer balls found gaps and he allowed just 4 hits, while striking out 5 to work his ERA back down to 4.08. This is right around the ratio production we’d expect from Danks as his ERA and WHIP appear to have finally caught up with his peripherals.
David Ortiz:
Perhaps I’ve been a bit harsh in my assessment of Big Papi this year and declaring him D-O-N-E, as Ortiz has gone on a tear in June hitting .313/.397/.672 and knocking out 7 HR’s. The resurgence has certainly made me look a bit foolish of late, but I still want to point out two splits for you when assessing Big Papi. The first is his road line this season .188/.292/.299; the second is his line against AL opponents this season .215/.311/.357. Obviously this includes his horrid first two months in the data, but the point is much of the hot streak has come during interleague play (4 of the 7 HR’s, 12-38) and during an extended home stand (5 HR’s in a span of 12 of 15 at home). Papi’s showing signs of coming usefulness as a fantasy player, but I think this more of a hot streak, blip on the radar screen, than extended “he’s back”. The bat speed is still lacking, as evidenced by a 25% K Rate during this hot stretch and much of the production is coming against an inferior league that he won’t face the rest of the season. As a spot-starting U option when the Sox are at home, Papi will hold value, but if you think he’s “back” to even the 2007 or 2008 pace, I think you’re fooling yourself.
Aaron Hill:
Hill’s 2 HR game on Sunday gave him a career high 19 HR’s and pushed him within 18 RBI’s of another career high. While it’s obvious the breakout season from a talented hitter is upon us, Hill’s pace isn’t likely to continue. A HR/FB Rate above 15% and an increasing K Rate by month (13.4%, 15%, 15.5%) suggest Hill’s homer pace will slow as will his average and all around production. We’ve already seen the average decline by month (.365, .307, .243), but Hill’s 7 HR’s here in June have helped mask some of the decline. He’s still going to be a Top 10 2B the rest of the way, but he’s got the value of a Top 3 and Top 20 player overall.
David Aardsma:
Boy was I wrong on David Aardsma. Aardsma’s been fantastic all year in the closer’s role, first succeeding with the benefit of some good luck and now showing some legitimate improvements. His BB Rate has come down here in June (just .36) and things have really clicked. The K Rate has gotten up to an absurd 16.4/9 here in June and he’s strung together 11 consecutive scoreless innings. He’s now shown improvement in both his K and BB Rates in each of the three months and while there will be some correction eventually in his Strand and BHIP% Rates, as the peripherals continue to improve the severity of that correction lessens.
Jose Lopez:
Lopez has picked up right where he left off since returning from the bereavement list. Lopez picked up his 3rd multi-hit game in 4 outings and is 8-17 during that span. Lopez was due for some severe correction in his batting average as I noted back on June 8th a .186 BHIP% wasn’t doing him any favors. Since then he’s gone 18-47, spurred on by a .342 BHIP%. The hot streak has helped bring his overall BHIP% up to .216, which still has another 20-30 points of movement upward to normalize. Lopez’s 2009 pace is practically on par with his 2008 production, he’s just in line for some better luck to help correct the overall numbers. He remains a nice subtle buy-low candidate.
