David Ortiz (DH--Red Sox)-- It has been well documented what a difficult season it has been for David Ortiz. Fantasy owners that were expecting the usually offensive numbers from Ortiz have instead acquired one of the biggest fantasy busts so far of the first half of the season. However, Ortiz does seem to have finally found his stroke and what's very encouraging is that he hit his 3rd home run in five games against Sabathia and the Yankees on Thursday night. No longer are we measuring the frequency of the Ortiz's home runs by the lunar calendar, or worse, Haley's Comet (but that's reserved for Cub fans). In fact over the last 9 games, Ortiz has hit in 8 of them showing more consistency then we have seen at any point this season. After lingering below the .200 Mendoza Line mark for almost three weeks, Ortiz has finally pushed his average back up to .203. He isn't exactly on fire but its better and that's good news. The bad news is that inter league play has started this weekend and just when Ortiz was getting into a groove and fantasy owners were able to crack a partial smile, Ortiz will be limited to pinch hitting duties. Talk about poor timing. The biggest issue with Ortiz this season seems to be that his plate discipline is off from previous years. While he owns a career EYE of 0.73, this season it’s at a poor 0.49. But let's look at Ortiz's career track record over 13 seasons: he is a career hitter of .283 (.203 BA -2009), hits a HR every 16.5 AB's (51.8 -2009), a BHIP of .302 (.250 BHIP -2009) and a career Total Average of .953 (.570 TotA -2009). From my perspective, assuming no injury, this season so far has been an anomaly and Ortiz is due for a turn around once inter league play is done. The savvy fantasy owner may want to take advantage of the frustrated fantasy owner who has Ortiz and make a trade for him now. It's possible that you could get a great value without having to give up too much as Ortiz is sure to turn things around.
Vernon Wells (OF-Blue Jays)--As much as I hate to admit it, I have begun to sour on Vernon Wells. Before 2007, at the age of 27, I considered Wells one of the best outfielders in the American League. In his first 5 years in MLB, he averaged 27 HR, 97 RBI and a .288 BA per season. The last two seasons, Wells has averaged 18 HR, 79 RBI and a .268 BA. Injuries has obviously taken there toll on Wells. But at 27 when I thought he was just on the brink of becoming an elite player, he went the other way and has become a good #2 option for outfielders. This season isn't sizing up to be much more promising. While he has played regularly, Wells has only been able to muster up 5 HR, 28 RBI and a .246 BA. In fact, he hasn't hit a HR in 143 PA’s and has a SLG of .381. Wells' RC/27 would only net a team 4.16 runs per game. To put that into perspective, there are only 25 starting pitchers in the A.L. that have an ERA less then 4.16. So unless you have a one of those guys on the mound, a lineup full of Vernon Wells' is just not going to get the job done. While I would anticipate an improvement in his BA and to wind up with respectable numbers, his TotA is only .660 for the season compared to a career TotA of .756. Well, that is a good Total Average, it doesn't really compare to the first 5 seasons when it was closer to .800. Despite that Wells, remains a good option in outfield and will continue to contribute. With his place in the Blue Jay lineup, he still is in a place to drive in runs and be an impact player on the team, he just may not be the greatest impact player in the A.L.
Josh Fields (3B/1B--White Sox)--With Paul Konerko finally returning to the lineup, Josh Fields has been relieved of his first base duties on Saturday and took a seat on the bench. After a strong first two weeks of the season, Fields has tumbled downward and is now batting just .229. Over the last 10 games Fields is 4 for 28, batting just .143. Fields has not shown a particularly discerning EYE at 0.32, striking out once every 3.1 AB's. In the past fantasy owners could at least count on Fields for home run power to compensate for all of the strikeouts, but this year Fields has not been able to get that part of his game going, hitting only 3 HR this season and 1 home run for every 62.7 AB's compared to a career average of 22.7 AB's. Two other indicators that are working against Fields is that his BHIP is .320 which means that he has been getting lucky on the base hits. Lucky is good but when you are lucky to be batting .229, you hate to see what Fields' BA would be if he were unlucky. To make matters worse, Fields CT% is only at 68% which is a good indication that the average will probably stay low and the strikeouts will be high. Even with Ozzie Guillen's confidence in Fields to handle a spot in his everyday lineup, you should probably take a pass on adding him to yours.
Jose Contreras (SP—White Sox)—Jose Contreras pitched his best game on Saturday since…well, his last start. Yes, it’s true. It has been a long time since Contreras has put two, back to back, dominating starts together. Contreras was outstanding against the Brewers going 8 innings once again, allowing just 2 hits, 2 walks, striking out 8 and not allowing an ER. Over his last two starts, Contreras has lowered his ERA 8.19 down to a more tolerable 5.32. Despite the last two starts, Contreras has been more erratic than excellent where 49% of the hits he gives up go for extra bases and his CT% is over 80%. But there are some interesting indicators that bear looking at. Contreras’ ERC is 3.68 for an ERC% of 0.69 while his DIPS is 4.36 with a DIP% of 0.82. That both of these indicators are below 1.00% would indicate the Contreras has been very unlucky and he has pitched better then his ERA would suggest. But before we start jumping on the Contreras bandwagon and dropping CC Sabathia for Contreras, it might be more prudent to see if he can tuck away a few more quality starts. If he can, Contreras could be a very good sleeper in deeper leagues as he has the talent to dominate when he is on his game.
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