Daisuke Matsuzaka (SP – Red Sox)
Dice-K left yesterday for Florida where he will commence a conditioning program. The Sox are essentially treating this as a do-over, and have likened it to Spring Training, which Dice-K missed due to the WBC. There has been no definitive time-table set for his return to the big leagues, but I would speculate that it will be at least a month from now. Based on his peripherals (8.74 K/9, 4.63 BB/9, Dice-K actually has been very comparable to last season (8.27 K/9, 4.63 BB/9). The difference has been a massive reversal of luck (.267 BABIP, 80.6% strand rate, 6.1% HR/FB last year; .441 BABIP, 68.9% strand rate, 15.1% HR/FB this year). The real Dice-K is clearly somewhere in between his last two seasons, and I would use his rookie year as a decent gauge for what to expect in the 2nd half of ‘09 (4.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP). The next month presents a very desirable buying period on Dice-K.
Delmon Young (OF – Twins)
It may be hard to fathom after his extremely disappointing ’08 season, but Delmon Young has regressed even further in ’09. Delmon has actually been so bad that it hurts my brain just thinking about it (.256 / .281 / .318). Astonishingly, he has actually been quite lucky this season with a .361 BABIP that is overstated by roughly 70 points. If not for good fortune, he would most likely be the worst regular in major league baseball this year. His K rate has jumped up by 13% this year, while his BB rate has declined by 3%, which has left him with a nauseating .09 EYE. His extra base hit rate is a mere 3.9%, and he has continued to pound the ball into the ground with remarkable frequency (53.7% GB). There are absolutely no positive signs to take away from Delmon’s season this year; but if you insist, it would have to be that he is still just 24 years old.
A.J. Burnett (SP – Yankees)
A.J. Burnett defeated his former team on Friday, and has thrown together four straight impressive starts. Don’t be fooled by the recent hot stretch. All of Burnett’s indicators (K/9, BB/9, GB%) have fallen when compared to his last few seasons. He has been able to scrape by in large part to his 77.9% strand rate. This will normalize in time, and his current BB/9 of 4.50 will come back to bite him. In fact, even in his last four highly successful starts, his BB/9 has been 4.00 in those games. His obvious injury concerns not withstanding, Burnett is still a player that I would be selling. After coming off of these last four starts, there is no better time than right now to start shopping him.
Grady Sizemore (OF – Indians)
Grady Sizemore has unequivocally been a colossal disappointment for fantasy owners this year. However, with injury concerns aside, he should have a monster 2nd half. Grady’s EYE (.49) has noticeably fallen this season, but it does not concern me since his contact rate (81.2%) has remained the same. The main culprit in Grady’s down season has been a brutal BABIP of .250. He sports a career BABIP of .318, and his LD rate this season directly aligns with his career averages. There are no truly concerning statistics that would indicate a decline in skills, but it cannot be forgotten that he has an elbow issue that is likely to require surgery following the season. If Grady can stay healthy in the 2nd half, acquiring him right now could be just the type of move to catapult a team to a fantasy title.
Travis Hafner (DH – Indians)
Travis Hafner smacked his 9th homer of the season last night, along with drawing two walks. Hafner has quieted his critics so far this year, and actually looks pretty darn good right now. His EYE (.88) has returned to where it was before last season’s disaster. His extra base hit rate is a very impressive 14.5%. And finally, his contact rate is a career best 80.2%. I was willing to believe that the decline in his level of play was more a function of injuries, rather than a true diminishment of skills, and I am feeling pretty confident about that now. Even though his position eligibility hinders his fantasy value, Hafner looks like he could still be a valuable contributor in any league.
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