Bud Norris - SP HOU:
In one of the more unusual occurrences in a baseball season the two starting pitchers in the Cubs-Astros game yesterday were both informed they were no longer with the teams immediately following the game. While Kevin Hart was involved in a trade, Russ Ortiz’s fate was a bit less fortunate as he was released. The real news here from a fantasy perspective isn’t Ortiz’s value, but the man who will be claiming his spot in the rotation: Bud Norris. Norris is one of the better prospects in an underwhelming Astros system. He posted a 2.62 ERA with a 8.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, with a 46% GB Rate. In addition Norris was impressive in mop up duty on Wednesday giving up 1 ER in 3 innings while striking out 4. The strikeouts and ground balls at the minor league level are a good indicator for Norris, but he’ll need to command the strike zone better to have success at the major league level. He’ll get his first start against a struggling SF offense at home, which will be a good opportunity for success. At this point NL only leaguers should look at him as a back-end rotation option, while he’s purely a speculative play in traditional formats. Regardless a rise in value is certainly in store for the youngster as the Astros try to see what they have here.
Milton Bradley - OF CHC:
As the entire Cubs lineup has gotten red-hot, Milton Bradley has been trying to recoup some of his value. He’s posted a .273/.456/.426 line that’s allowed him to score 14 Runs in July, while knocking in 9. His EYE has been tremendous in July (1.38) and improved all season (.86), but don’t expect anything close to last season in terms of production. Bradley’s GB Rate has shot up to 49% and though he’s been better overall in July, his extra base hit rate has remained very low with just 4 exbh’s in 66 AB’s (6.1%). This is consistent with the declining power we’ve seen all season and one of the reason’s Bradley will struggle in HR’s, RBI’s, and BA (as though his EYE is great it’s created by a high BB Rate and high K Rate). The recent production isn’t unsustainable, but a big improvement specifically in the power categories isn’t likely either.
Johnny Cueto - SP CHC:
Things for Johnny Cueto are going downhill fast and in a big way. Cueto posted his 4th consecutive start with 11 or more base-runners allowed. His command has disintegrated in July throwing just 58% of his pitches for strikes, consistently falling behind, and seeing an increased BB Rate. Some of the stretch is a correction in favorable luck Cueto had earlier in the year as a .273 BHIP% and 0.76 Strand Rate was deflating his ERA by a half run or so, but part of this is also legitimate erosion of skill. While the K’s are up here in July, the command and overall effectiveness is way down. If he’s getting roughed up by a weak-hitting SD lineup, he needs to be reserved in all formats until we see some semblance of recovery.
Rick VandenHurk - SP FLA:
Despite making incredible improvements this year at the minor league level, VandenHurk’s first two starts at the major league level this year were rather ordinary. Pitching in friendly ballpark for his extreme fly ball tendencies VandenHurk allowed just 3 ER’s in 11 innings, but with just a 7:5 K:BB Ratio. On Thursday he dazzled allowing just 4 hits, 1 BB, and 2 ER’s in 6 innings while striking out 9. He threw an impressive 69 of his 95 pitches for strikes (73%), flashing the improved command he’s carried since pitching in the WBC. He’s in a great home park and has shown legitimate improvements in his biggest weakness: his command. He makes a terrific sleeper the rest of the way, a must own in NL Only leagues, and someone worth spot starting in favorable matchups and seeing if you can catch lightening in a bottle in mixed leagues. He’ll get two tough tests next week with WAS and PHI, two offenses that rank in the top 8 in OBP.
Jorge De la Rosa - SP COL:
Consistency has never really been Jorge De la Rosa’s thing, but of late De la Rosa’s harnessed his command and has put together a streak of 6 consecutive quality starts and 7 consecutive wins. On Thursday night De la Rosa held the Mets to 2 ER’s on 3 hits and 3 BB’s in 6 1/3 innings, striking out 5. The streak has come with a string of favorable matchups for De la Rosa as he’s faced: OAK, ARZ, WAS, ARZ, SF, and NYM during the 6 game stretch. With the exception of WAS all of those teams rank in the bottom half of baseball in OBP, which tends to be a pretty good indicator on how to use De la Rosa. Against patient high powered offenses, he can throw up some disastrous outings, but against the bottom feeders of MLB, he’s a pretty effective starter. Though he’s shown improvements in his command and an elite K Rate just over 1 with a good GB Rate (47%), owners still need to be careful about how and when they use De la Rosa. His next start will come in PHI, before he gets the red hot Cubs at home. Both outings would figure to be dangerous ones for him and ones I’d consider sitting out if I was focused on protecting ratios.
