Oliver Perez (SP--Mets)—Dim the lights, cue scary music. Yes, Oliver Perez is back. And were you thinking that now would be a good time to add Perez to your lineup? The “New and Improved” Oliver Perez? Did the notion enter your mind even for a sliver of a second? The tiniest hint of a moment where you thought: “Oliver Perez. Now there’s a name you can trust.” Well, if you did have that misguided epiphany, we need to have a serious intervention. Right here. Right now. I will be very clear about this: do not add Perez to your lineup!!! You might even say, “But Richard, Ollie won his first game back for the Mets. Surely, it can’t be that bad.” To which I would say: Yes. Yes. It really is that bad. Even Juan Pierre will hit a home run every now and then but it doesn’t mean he should enter the home run derby. Perez’s performance was not much better than what we have seen earlier this year and he was still just as erratic, needing 108 pitches to get through 5 innings. He did only allow 2 ER but there was absolutely nothing fluid about his performance allowing runners on base in every inning. This season Perez has BB% of 18.3% and Wednesday stats will do nothing to improve that as he allowed 7 free passes. After tonight’s win, Perez has an embarrassing 2.25 WHIP and quite frankly there is nothing to indicate from Wednesday performance that fantasy owners can expect anything different then what they saw earlier in the season. So, beware! Stay away! And if you happen to have a weak moment where you want to add a pitcher, I can suggest better options. For instance, Chien-Ming Wang comes to mind.
Mark Reynolds (3B--Diamondbacks)-- If you picked Mark Reynolds to be your third basemen on draft day, chances are, you were going into the situation with your eyes wide open. You know the kind of player he is: strikeout, strikeout, strikeout, home run. Strikeout, strikeout, strikeout, home run. And while I tend to have a difficult time getting behind one dimensional players like Reynolds (after all he is on pace for 45 HR's and 220 K's), I also can't deny the impact they have on the game with one swing of the bat. In baseball, everything revolves around runs: scoring runs, moving the runner over to get in scoring position, stealing the extra base to get in scoring position, driving in runs, getting the walk to get on base to score a run. Runs are the currency of the game. And while the more refine ways to generate runs, like the sacrifice bunt, are not going to come from Reynolds, there is something to be said for one big swing and crack of the bat that has the potential to cash in a whole bunch of runs. Let's just suppose for a second, just for fun, that the 24 home runs that Reynolds has hit the season were caught on the warning track. His line would look more like this: .185/.243/.589, rather then what it actually is .262/.557/.907. Chances are the player with the first set of stats would not be on your fantasy baseball team. But Reynolds game is the home run. Pure and simple. And with the long ball, runs have the potential of being cashed-in in bulk. This is very valuable in fantasy baseball because of all of the offensive categories the home run helps. Using his stats for 2009, if a team had an entire lineup of Mark Reynolds, it would produce a very impressive 107-55 record for that team. That's a team that is certainly going to the playoffs. So while other fantasy owners may cringe at the number of strikeouts, Mark Reynolds potential power makes him a must start in all formats
Wandy Rodriguez (SP--Astros) -- Wandy Rodriguez is one of the N.L. pitchers that has put together a solid first half of the season and often seems to fly below the radar. In fact, for many fantasy owners on draft day, he probably went largely unnoticed, undrafted and under appreciated; perhaps being picked up in later rounds or even off of waivers. If you look at Rodriguez's stats from year to year, you will see an obvious progression in effectiveness. With 12 quality starts this year, it already exceeds his total quality starts from last year. His WHIP is on the high side for my liking at 1.331 but he has been able to maintain a very crisp ERA of 2.96 which is largely due to his very strong K/9 of 8.2 and a high LOB% of just under 78%. He was dominant against the Pirates on Wednesday not allowing a run over 9 innings while striking out a season high 11. Right now I'd consider Rodriguez a solid #3 option in your rotation but I'd monitor the K/9 ratio and the LOB%, because if the strikeouts go down along with the strand rate, it's going to mean more earned runs being scored against Wandy, especially with a slightly elevated WHIP. But, if he continues to pitch like he did Wednesday, there is no reason to believe that he won't continue his solid season as most key indicators are in line with his career averages.
Ryan Sadowski (SP--Giants) – One of the great thrills of fantasy baseball is grabbing that promising player who you have a gut feeling about, before anyone else clues in, and that player turns out to be that diamond in the rough. And you saw it before everyone else did. Well, there are probably many who have been adding Ryan Sadowski to their rosters over the past week, but I would be a little reluctant to jump the gun. It's difficult to assess the true value of a player after only 3 major league starts, but Sadowski has been a nice addition to the Giants rotation so far. Based upon his initial contributions, it's difficult to believe that he wasn't even a part of the Giants spring training. But on Wednesday, some of the shine came off of Sadowski and he looked a little more like a rookie pitcher taking his first loss of the season while allowing 2 ER over 5 innings, walking 4 and striking out the same. Not terrible, but not great. But even with today’s game, Sadowski has some impressive stats with a 1.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He is primarily a contact pitcher with a CT% of 82% so you shouldn’t expect many strikeouts. But with a BHIP of .159, you shouldn’t expect his fast start to continue. His value right now is a false value. I would expect some rougher roads ahead, so before you reserve a spot for him, you should probably wait on that but keep him on your scout list until there are a few more games under his belt that would be a better indication of his true worth.
Dexter Fowler (OF--Rockies)—There have been several times this season where you get glimpses at the impact player that Dexter Fowler can be. And then there are times when he looks, well…like a rookie. Wednesday, Fowler had the kind of game that makes you see the enormous potential going 2 for 3 with 2 BB, 1 RBI, 2 R and a stolen base. His season as a whole has been just mediocre to average with a line of .252/.348/.383. With a fair CT% of 77%, Fowler tendency to strikeout is high, as he strikes out almost 23% of the time. And after a fast start and an impressive display of power, Fowler’s has but 3 home runs on the year and has not had one in about a month. At 6’4” and 175 lbs, Fowler’s frame should fill out and with that more power will come. For now, he is a great source of steals as he has 17 on the season and he should be a strong combination of power and speed. I might be inclined to give Fowler a shot in NL only leagues and deeper mixed leagues but my feeling is that the best is yet to come and is may not be worth starting on a regular basis at this time. Having said that, he is a must have in keeper leagues.
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