Brian Duensing: Duensing numbers’, 5-2 with a 3.66 ERA, look much better than the numbers that a rookie with his skills, 5.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and a 46%GB, should be producing. A 75% Strand Rate and a depressed 7% HR/FB% are really helping Duensing. Considering that he will already be 27 years of age next year, that Triple-A hitters were hitting him hard earlier this year, 4.66 ERA in 13 starts, and his skills down there were very soft, 5.3 K/9 and a 2.3 BB/9, this looks like a career minor leaguer who has caught lightening in a bottle. He will most likely start the 2010 season in the Twins starting rotation, but this is not someone that you want on your fantasy team next year.
Aaron Hill: After a promising 2007 season, 17/78/.291 in 608, was followed by an injury-filled 2008 season, 2/20/.263 in 205 AB, Hill had the breakout season, 36/107/.288 in 670 AB that was predicted last year. At 28 years of age by the beginning of next year, Hill is in his prime power years and his skills, 86% Ct% and a 41% FB%, make another strong season in 2010 a very good bet.
Ian Kinsler: Kinsler has elite power, 31 home runs and 31 doubles in 555 AB, and speed, 31 steals in 36 attempt, but his batting average dropped from .319 last year down to .254 this season. A growing FB%, 2008/2009 FB%’s 43%/55%, and a depressed .181 BHIP% are the main culprits. The BHIP% gives him batting upside next year, but the high FB%, which is good for his power but bad for his average, means you probably will not see a return to his 2008 average.
Ken Griffey: Griffey has gone from a superstar to an ordinary hitter, 18/56/.215 in 377 AB. He still can draw a walk, 14%, and makes decent contact, 80% Ct%, but the high 47% FB, with the loss of power, means that age is sapping his ability to clear the fences. If he does come back next year, expect the decline to continue.
David Murphy: It looks like Murphy tried to open up his swing, 2008/2009 Ct%’s 83%/75%, to try and clear the fences more often, 2008/2009 FB%’s 40%/43%. The only problem is that his power didn’t improve, 2008/2009 AB’s 415/420, Doubles’ 28/23, and Home Runs’ 15/17. He turns 28 years of age shortly after this season ends, so this is most likely his power level for the next couple of seasons.
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