Blue Jays Bullpen - The season-ending injury suffered by Joe Nathan has send tsunami warnings to baseball shores far and wide this week, with waves starting to wash ashore at Jay's camp. The Twins have reportedly expressed interest in Jason Frasor. With Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg in line in front of him for 9th inning opps, Frasor would likely love a ticket out of Toronto.
Frasor was 11 for 14 in save opps last year filling in for Downs and posted closer-quality numbers for the Jays including an 8.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, 1.02 WHIP, and .209 OBA in 61 appearances and 57.2 IP. He leads with a 94 mph FB but leans on his slider (19.2% of his pitches) and can drop a curve and change on occasion.
Seems like Jason's only caveat is his relatively level GB/FB ratio from last year. Of course the other problem is that last year's performance is is kind of an outlier. His ERA fell from 4.18 to 4.58 in the previous three seasons with a BB/9 rate of 6.08 in 08 and 3.6 in 07. That brought his WHIP up to 1.44 and 1.23 respectively.
Still Jason held opponents to OBAs of .212 and .266. His OBHIP% was rather lucky in '08 at .259 and mildly unlucky in 07 at .302. His '07 ERA was hurt by an unlucky 63.4% LOB% while he was neutral in '08 at 72.6%. Last year he was helped by a very favorable 79.4% LOB%.
One other big change last year was a 5% increase in Jason's ability to get batters to chase out of the zone, up to 24.2%. Whether that's mechanical, or maturity, or simply a statistical oddity remains to be seen. What the Twins (and the Cubs who are also interested) see is a veteran pitcher with good stuff who had a very effective season ... and they evaluate pitchers well. The Jays see something else that keeps them from including him in the closing picture ...something could be as benign as considering him invaluable in the set up role.
From a fantasy standpoint Frasor becomes considerably more interesting after a trade to the Twins, and in mixed leagues that score holds, he also gets interesting with a move to the Cubs.
Blue Jays Starting Rotation - Brett Cecil's kitchen incident earlier this spring could have extended implications. Cecil was limited to fastball/change in his outing on Wednesday due to a cut on his left thumb. Cito Gaston isn't happy with the time he's missing with the curve and how far behind he's lagging at camp. The Jays have plenty of options for the rotation at about the same quality level and they have no reason to rush Cecil. He may be buying a little extended spring training. We'll stay on top of it.
Dustin McGowan threw 15 pitches in a simulated game on Tuesday and has responded well. He's about ready to become a factor although he's almost assuredly staying behind in Florida when the team breaks camp. Still plenty of hurdles for Dustin to jump but he's just put himself on our radar.
Meanwhile Shaun Marcum upped his scoreless inning streak to 5 over two outings this spring with 3 scoreless IP on Thursday. He could very well earn the Jay's Opening Day start. Prior to this spring Marcum said his elbow feels so good he feels like a 10-year-old again, and so far he's avoided any set backs. His last full season in 2008 was a good one at 9-7, 3.39, 1.16. It's hard not to feed off his enthusiasm for his health the spring. Let's just hope he doesn't out-price himself this spring. If you can slot him as your #4 or #5 especially in AL-only leagues you may get a nice payout. Don't over reach however and remember he pitches in the AL-East.
Cardinals Third Base - Felipe Lopez was signed as insurance for Brendan Ryan at SS (currently scheduled to play his first game 3/20 which could have him ready for Opening Day) and to shore up the Card's bench, but he's applying pressure on young David Freese at third base as well.
Cards GM John Mozeliak essentially handed Freese the job in January knowing that he was close to being ready offensively but perhaps Mozeliak underestimated Freese's defensive shortcomings. Freese has not been MLB-caliber at the position this spring and frankly he's not enough of an offensive contributor at the position to whitewash his defensive play. That wasn't all that much of a problem when Joe Mather was Freese's competition but with Lopez on the roster the dynamic has changed somewhat. Freese doesn't present the type of high-end offensive potential that would make you reach or wait for him. If he starts he will present value as a CI, especially in NL-only leagues but he's shouldn't be occupying any of our subscribers 3B slots on Opening Day.
Cardinals Injuries - As we mentioned above, Brendan Ryan is currently scheduled to play on March 20th which would give him two weeks to get ready for Opening Day. That would loosen up Felipe Lopez to press David Freese at 3B ... Matt Holliday won't see action until early next week due to a strained rib cage muscle tweaked in pre-game BP on Wednesday. Everyone is saying the team and Holliday are being overly cautious and there is plenty of time for Matt to heal before the season opener. Still this situation bears watching as do all rib cage injuries with sluggers. We'll keep an eye on him next week ... On the other hand Albert Pujols could return to action as early as today. He's missed the week with a sore back but took BP before yesterday's game expecting to play before the game was rained out.
Red Sox Injuries - The Red Sox have pushed off Mike Lowell's return to action until Monday against the Orioles although they aren't writing that date in stone either. This seemingly represents a legitimate issue as both Lowell and the team have to be anxious for his return. Lowell has reported that his surgically repaired hip is much better now than it was at this time last year. He's currently rehabbing the thumb issue that nixed his trade to the Rangers this winter
Jason Varitek is back with the team after missing 5 days to be with his ill father. This will periodically take the Captain from camp throughout the spring. He was scheduled to see some action before yesterday's game was washed out. Jason will back up Victor Martinez this summer but he could see some significant time. The Sox are just a tad worried about Martinez's offense when he plays catcher (.828 OPS as a catcher the last three years and .871 at 1B, and last year the split was .793/.942 with 117 points of difference in SLG%) and will be anxious to give him time out from behind the plate.
Joba Chamberlain - Apparently Joba Chamberlain has yet to pitch himself out of the competition for the Yankees 5th starting spot with his shaky spring. Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland have both suggested that the two front runners for the job, Joba and Phil Hughes are pitching under instructions to work on things, and that is being taken into account in management's evaluations. Alfredo Aceves and Sergio Mitre have pitched themselves into competition and both are schedule to pitch today. Frankly though it hard to imagine either opening the year as the Yankees' 5th starter if either Joba or Hughes are healthy. It's still too early to place your bets on this situation but if you have to decide today, Hughes would be my pick for the 5th slot.
Asdrubal Cabrera - Cabrera left Friday's game in the 5th inning, a few pitches after appearing to injure his leg either stretching out a triple or returning to the bag on a subsequent pickoff attempt. No word yet on the extent of his injury. Cabrera was reported to be walking without a limp when he walked to the teams shuttle bus. More as we get it, but this doesn't appear to be a major issue.
Julio Borbon - Julio Borbon is off to a hot start in Rangers camp. He had a pair of leadoff hits and scored twice raising his spring average to .348. Borbon had a nice run with the Rangers last year hitting .312 in his first 157 MLB ABs although that average had the tailwind of a favorable .360 BHIP% (although it needs to be noted he carried a .335 BHIP% in AAA in 407 ABs last year and a .370 BHIP% in 255 AA ABs in 2007). The most important number on his stat line however was his 19 SBs which gave him 44 over two levels last year. Borbon matured a bit as a hitter over his last two seasons raising his 5.0% walk rate in 2008 (AA) to 7.2% in AAA last year which he actually raised in the majors to 8.5%, a good sign despite a significant level-jump goose to his K rate (17.8%, 8% higher than his 9.8% rate in AAA) ... He chased balls out of the zone 27.4% of the time last year with the big club, but we can reasonably expect that to get significantly better this year. He puts the ball in play (93% contact rate on balls in the strike zone) and puts it on the ground (2.0 GB/FB last year) and uses his speed. Julio could easily develop into a significant fantasy factor this year with the Rangers for his SBs alone. He doesn't project to contribute much in the power columns but he'll have additional value in leagues that score runs and perhaps even OBP. He'd be more valuable out of a MI slot of course but Borbon should present good value in many leagues this year if your fellow owners aren't tuned in too well.
Chris Davis - The Rangers may also offer some value at first base where Chris Davis is drawing praise for a hot start to the spring. Davis was 3-for-4 on Friday making him 11-for 19 on the spring. Davis just never found his feet last year in the big leagues, until September that is, after which he hit .318 in 110 ABs with 5 HRs and 21 RBI. More importantly, over that 110 ABs Davis cut his K rate to 25.4% which doesn't seem particularly good until you look at his season long rate of 38.4% ... Rangers manager Ron Washington said it all yesterday "Chris is doing well," Washington said. "He's been in camp taking care of business and he's very confident. He's not over-swinging. He's controlling the strike zone. We just want to make sure he stays in the same frame of mind.". If Chris does, he's going to pay dividends this year. .275 with 30/80 is entirely plausible at what should be a very reasonable price in most leagues.
Scott Shields - Scott Shields made his first appearance of the spring Friday against the White Sox and got three straight outs after a lead off single. Shields said he felt so good that he wasn't thinking about his surgically repaired knee and a happy manager Mike Scioscia said that Shields did not favor his knee in his delivery. Shield is always a reliable end play for your bullpen providing good K rates and WHIP over a significant pile of IP. In leagues that score Holds, Scott is even more valuable as the fourth most productive reliever in baseball in that category on average over the last three years.
Jair Jurrjens - Jurrjens was outstanding in his first outing of the year Friday against the Bucs. He retired 6 of 7 in a game that was eventually call for rain after three innings. Bobby Cox said Jurrjens threw all of his pitches with life on his fastball and a good change. Jurrjens felt no pain in his shoulder and was relieved to see how it bounced back after resting between innings, an experience he hasn't had so far this spring. All good signs for owners of a blossoming young pitcher.
Alex Rios - Rios homered and doubled against the Angels on Friday and is now 5- for -14 this spring with a pair of homers. We are perennially disappointed with Alex because we continually compare his results to what we once saw as his potential. The results alone however, in a vacuum, aren't all that bad especially when you consider how he's been valued the last couple of years. Rio stole 24 bases last year, hitting 17 HRs and driving in 71 in a really trying season for him. His zone command slipped a bit, perhaps as he pushed a little too hard on sinking ship and later with a new set of teammates, and he hit just .247 last year, about 40 points lower than his usual .290. His BHIP% dipped about 40% as well to .273 after a .331, .319, and .336 the previous three seasons. If he finds some comfort in Chicago this year he could finally produce the 20/20 season we have all waited for and he could steal considerably more than 20. The best part is that most people think he stinks. Most owners would chase 20/20 potential in a young player, but in this case they'll avoid a veteran with a proven ability to actually produce something very close to a 20/20 season. The profit margin between what Alex actually is, and how most owners feel about him now, is where Championships are won. If you can slot him as your #4 or #5 OF at a price that reflects general opinion about Rios, you will be pleased with what you get ... just put your thumb over his name when you look at his stat line.
Aroldis Chapman - Chapman worked two scoreless innings of on Friday fanning two and tripping triple digits on some radar guns. Pitching coach Bryan Price said earlier in the week that it's not out of the realm of possibility that Chapman could make the team out of camp, but the decision won't be based purely in performance, which means they are leaning towards letting him get his feet wet in the minors. So far he's been impressive although he has struggled with his slider to this point.
Jim Edmonds - Jim Edmonds is actually making his case for the Brewers. He was 2- for -3 on Friday with a his first spring HR. That makes him 6- for -14 for the spring and he is pressing Jody Gerut for a roster spot. We'll know more on March 25th when the Brewers have to put him on the 40-man or release him. Based on what we have seen so far there is probably an MLB gig available for him somewhere, if not for the Brewers in April.
