Gio Gonzalez - Gonzalez looked great in his 2010 debut against the Angels last night, allowing two runs on six hits over six innings, walking only one while fanning six. Gonzalez had two critical issues that primarily influenced his subpar 2009. First, his control was typically poor....awful, really. Five walks per nine isn't going to get it done anywhere. I think it's likely that he cuts that figure to somewhere in the high threes this year, and that'll shave probably a run off of his ERA. The second issue in 2009 was luck on balls hit into play. Gonzalez has allowed a rather low LD% ever since he got to the majors (and I presume before that as well), but last season allowed a BABIP about .065 higher than his LD% would have led you to expect. That's another factor that will probably self-correct a bit this year...something that will probably shave another 0.25 or so off of his ERA. We're already down to an expectation of an ERA in the mid-fours, and that's without any further improvement in GB%, or perhaps a few less home runs leaving the park. That is why our (and one other outlet I've seen) forecast is, in my opinion, very realistic in forecasting so much improvement. If you couldn't tell, I'm very optimistic for Gonzalez to perform well this year.
Javier Vazquez - The last time Javy Vazquez pitched for the Yanks he put up his worst walk rate of the decade, his worst K rate of the decade, and his worst HR rate of the decade. Combine that with the fact that the Yanks play in a tougher park to pitch in now than they did then, and you've got a situation where Vazquez is quite likely overrated. Javy did nothing to dispel that notion yesterday, cruising through three innings before getting pounded for eight runs over the next 2 2/3 by the Rays. The two homers allowed weren't really a shock for a flyball pitcher like Vazquez, but the three walks in just 5 2/3 were fairly uncharacteristic. I don't think that Vazquez will be bad per se, but I do think that he'll be hard-pressed to be much better than league-average for the Yankees this year.
Daric Barton - Offseason laser eye surgery? Check. Player still pre-prime but already seemingly written off due to slow development? Check. Minor league performances at a very young age that illustrate skills not yet seen at the big league level? Check, check, and check. Daric Barton makes the perfect sleeper and his start to the season is going to make it hard for that label to stick, as Barton had three hits (and another walk) for the second straight game in the A's 10-4 victory over the Angels. Barton is still just 24 for the majority of this season, and this is a kid who had 36 XBH in 90 games as an 18 year old catcher in a full-season league, who had more walks than strikeouts for four years running in the minors, who had 66 XBH as recently as 2007 split between AAA and the bigs. He shouldn't be written off, yet I haven't seen a forecast for a SLG above .425 for him except for ours. Obviously, as always, four games mean excruciatingly little in the grand scheme of things, but it gives me an excuse to bring up these other tidbits at least. I think he's worthy of a roster spot not just in AL-only leagues, but just about every format (at least as a reserve selection).
J.J. Hardy - After popping 50 homers in 2007 and 2008, we all expected great things for Hardy going into his age 26-27 year last season. Now that expectations have been completely muted, Hardy is perhaps going to prove everyone wrong in the other direction. Hardy appeared to be on the verge of jumping into the top handful of shortstops in the game before last season's debacle, and as a 27 year old with a solid eye and good power, he probably shouldn't be written off quite so quickly. Out of all of the forecasts that I've seen for Hardy coming into this season, I think ours not only captures his upside the best, but also captures what is likely. There may not be much more time to pick Hardy up as a "buy-low" acquisition.
Orioles bullpen - Mike Gonzalez blew his second save of the season against the Blue Jays yesterday, and it appears that his leash is already down to "nonexistent", as Cla Meredith was summoned to complete the ninth after Gonzalez had faced only four batters. I know it's the first week of the year, but you've got a situation where a pitcher new to the team has blown his first two saves, his velocity is down, his control is shaky, and his manager is on the hot seat. Jim Johnson and Cla Meredith look like pretty solid middle reliever pickups right now.
