Nick Markakis OF (BAL) – Markakis currently has a career high K% of 22.2%. I don’t expect that to last. He isn’t chasing a lot of balls. In fact his chase percentage of 22% is currently 5 percentage points lower than the rest of the MLB, and it is also directly in line with his career chase percentage of 21.9%. Furthermore, Markakis’ contact percentage of 84.4% is nearly 4 percentage points higher than the rest of the MLB, and it is only 1.5 percentage points lower than his career mark. This evidence indicates Markakis’ current rate of striking out is due to decrease. I don’t see any reason we don’t see it fall all the way down to his career mark of 16.8%, and once that happens Markakis will be putting a lot more balls in play resulting in a sizeable increase of his batting average.
Fausto Carmona SP (CLE) – Carmona is now 3-0 in 4 starts this season after holding Oakland in check for 7.1 IP. If you can find an owner who thinks Carmona is reverting back to his ’07 form, I would pull the trigger on a deal. Even with yesterday’s 4 strikeout 0 walk performance Carmona has a K/BB ratio of 13/12. In that magical 2007 season, Carmona walked just 2.25 batters per 9, but in the two seasons since he has walked over 5 batters per 9. Heading into yesterday’s start, Carmona’s BB/9 was at 5.40. Carmona’s GB% is a well above average at 52.5%, but in his dominant 2007 year it was 64.3%. In the two years in between it was 63.5% and 55.2%. So, you’ve got a guy whose best skill (getting ground balls) is in decline, has had essentially one good season, and has not walked a reasonable amount of batters in three years. I’m not buying a Carmona resurgence after four starts.
Grady Sizemore OF (CLE) - Sizemore is off to an ice cold start, but I think he’s a good buy low candidate. He has enough of a track record that I’m not going to give up on him three weeks into the season. His power has not been there (0 HR), but his FB% of 41% is only slightly lower than his career mark. With his HR/FB% being extremely consistent over the years (10.5/14/11.8/11.1/14.5/11.2), I don’t see any reason why the power won’t come soon to the 27 YO Sizemore. As far as his average is concerned, Sizemore’s current singles average is .152, which is way lower than his marks over the past 5 seasons (.253/.240/.271/.218/.213). Also, remember that .213 mark from last year is in large part due to the injuries Sizemore tried to play through. Sizemore certainly needs to be more disciplined at the plate (current .25 EYE), but I think that happens as his EYE’s the past three years have been .65/.75/.65. With Sizemore’s track record, the fact he is entering his peak years, and the fact that he’s been unlucky, all thrown together, he epitomizes the perfect buy low candidate in my opinion.
David Aardsma RP (SEA) – Aardsma skeptics such as myself have been waiting for a blow up like this from Aardsma for quite some time. Aardsma, an extreme fly ball pitcher (53.9% in ’09 and 63.6% in ’10), had given up just 4 homeruns in his last 77.1 IP. He had allowed 0 of his 7 fly balls this season to leave the park, and last season he had an extremely low HR/FB% of 4.2%. So, when Aardsma gave up 2 HR to blow a save and get the loss in yesterday’s ballgame, it should not have come as much of a surprise. Aardsma is not a bad closer (K/9 of 10+ between this year and last), but he isn’t as good as he showed last year. It’s doubtful Aardsma will get so lucky with his fly balls again, and after yesterday he’s already halfway to his ’09 HR total allowed.
Doug Fister SP (SEA) - Fister was in line for his 3rd win in four starts yesterday, as he gave up just 2 ER over 8 IP versus the White Sox. Fister has been a pleasant surprise for the Mariners, but I don’t see his run of success lasting much longer. Over his first four starts, Fister has just 13 strikeouts in 27 IP. While his control has been outstanding (just 5 walks), that K rate is just way too low for a pitcher to be consistently dominant as Fister has been thus far (at least on the surface). Meanwhile, his career GB% is just league average. Expect Fister to end up with an ERA similar to last year (4.10). He will beat his FIP and xFIP ERA’s again because of the great defense behind him and his ballpark. And while his low K rate will prevent him from being much above average, his control will prevent him from being terrible. In the short term, we should expect an immediate increase in his ERA and WHIP as his current LOB% of 82.4% and BABIP of .212 are far from sustainable.
