David Aardsma: Coming off of a breakout year in 2009, 38 saves in 42 opportunities, Aardsma has 8 saves in 9 chances this year. On the surface, those numbers would point to job security but consider that the combination of poor control and a fly ball tendency, 4.3 BB/9 and a 54% FB%, leaves his susceptible to an implosion if his HR/FB% of 4% reverts to the league average of 10%. He has already allowed 2 home runs in just 8.2 innings this year after allowing only 4 in 71.1 innings last year.
Franklin Gutierrez: Gutierrez is off to a flying start this year, 2/13/.345 with 2 steals in 84 AB. However, he is enjoying a .362 BHIP%, has not shown much improvement in his approach at the plate, 2009/2010 BB%’s 7%/9% and Ct%’s 78%/79%. With just league average power, this is more luck induced than a potential breakout for the 27-year-old.
David Ortiz: Unlike last year’s poor start, Ortiz is hitting for power, 1 home run and 5 doubles in 52 AB, but the problem is that he has just two singles leaving him with a .154 batting average. An.074 BHIP% would point to an expected rebound but there are troublesome signs here. His contact skills are free-falling, 2008/2009/2010 Ct%’s 82%/75%/63%, and he can’t LHP anymore, 2008/2009 batting averages of .221/.212, which are two big signs of an age-related decline. In addition, despite facing LHP less often, just 11 AB so far this year, he is walking less, 2008/2009/2010 BB%’s 14%/12%/10%, which shows you that even RHP are not afraid to pitch to him.
Ichiro Suzuki: At 36 years of age and with 3 caught steals in 9 attempts; we could be witnessing the beginning of the decline in Suzuki’s speed. With a 93% Ct% and 25 singles in 91 AB, Suzuki is still legging out hits, so it is not something you need to worry about yet, but consider that with speed being such a big part of his ground ball approach to hitting, 2008/2009 GB%’s 58%/56%, any decline in speed will have an affect not only on his SB totals, but also on his batting average.
Jonathan Papelbon: With a perfect 7 for 7 in saves opportunities, things are looking good for Papelbon. However he has 8 walks in 12 innings, which is continuing a trend of declining control, 2008/2009 BB/9’s 1.0/3.2. If it continues, the poor control, combined with a growing FB%, 2008/2009 #’s 31%/52%, is a recipe for some blown saves via 2 or 3-run HR.
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