A.L. Player Report - April 5th, 2010

Alberto Callaspo:

Callaspo will be on the opening day roster but with the Royals concerned about his right abdominal injury the Royals will withhold him from the opening day lineup against RH Justin Verlander. Callaspo, a switch hitter, has just started swinging again from the left side, and it’s believed the Royals will withhold Callaspo from the lineup against RHP early in the season. With five of the six scheduled starters the Royals are likely to face this week coming from the right side, Callaspo becomes a reserve candidate for Week 1. Callaspo flies a bit under the radar, but he has elite skills. His plate discipline has been superb throughout his career, consistently posting an EYE north of 1.00. As a 26 year old last season Callaspo notched 60 extra base hits and posted a XBH% of nearly 9.5%. He’s a 27 year old MI option with an elite EYE and adequate power slated to hit in the middle of the lineup who is largely going undrafted in leagues. The early season injury will continue to keep him off radars and as one of my favorite sleepers this season, I suggest owners stash him. Last year he topped .300 despite only a .243 BHIP, this season I think a .310-85-15-85 line is well within reason.

Gio Gonzalez

Gonzalez won the 5th starter’s spot in the A’s rotation after a tremendous spring in which he posted a 2.96 ERA with 25 K’s in 24 1/3 innings. Gonzalez has always had a unique ability to miss bats (career minor league 10.3 K/9) but has always struggled mightily with command (career minor league 4.1 BB/9). Unfortunately for Gonzalez those command issues weren’t cured this spring as he walked 13 (4.8 BB/9) and those command issues will ultimately limit his ability to harness the tremendous upside. As far as sleepers go you could do worse than a guy with Gonzalez’s K Rates and his great home park, but I’d take the cautious approach and keep him squarely on my bench until I see a signficant improvement in command or a better ability to get ahead in the count and keep hitters from teeing off on him (career 9.8 H/9 and 1.6 HR/9 at the major league level).

Shaun Marcum:

Marcum will get the tough task of filling the shoes of departed ace Roy Halladay. Marcum has gotten great results out of solid peripherals early in his career, but has largely been the beneficiary of some tremendous luck as evidenced by a career BABIP against of .269. Coming off of Tommy John surgery Marcum’s had a shaky spring posting a 8.10 ERA in just 10 spring innings. The K:BB has been consistent with his career (6 K’s, 3 BB’s), but owners expecting Marcum to post the low 3’s ERA Marcum put up pre-surgery are over-estimating his skills. Marcum’s more likely to finish with an ERA north of 4 than below 4 and should be looking at something like a 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 150 K’s, and 8-12 Wins.

Brett Gardner:

The moment the Yankees signed Randy Winn this offseason I immediately tweeted that I thought Brett Gardner would be terrific value in drafts this season. I called him Ellsbury lite who could be had at the end of drafts. On Sunday night Gardner delivered, finding his way on base twice in his four plate appearances while also swiping his first base of the season on a double-steal of home. Gardner doesn’t swing a tremendous bat, but he’s shown good on-base skills and the Yankees value his defense in the outfield. He has no real threat to his playing time this year and should make a nice run at 90 Runs and 50 SB’s. As a late round reserve selection no other player has as much legitimate upside in the SB department as Gardner.

Dustin Pedroia:

Pedroia got his 2010 campaign off to a nice start filling up the boxscore in a 2-4 effort that included a HR, 2 Runs, 3 RBI’s, and a BB. Pedroia’s fantasy stock seemed to have dropped a bit this season after a small step back after his MVP 2008 season. But a closer look at Pedroia’s 2009 season show his EYE improved significantly as did his willingness to run. His XBH Rate declined, but only slightly, and the real difference between his ’08 and ’09 seasons was a 30 point difference in his BHIP%. That should correct this season and Pedroia should make another run at a .320 season with 110+ Runs and a potential 20-20 campaign. When you factor in the lack of durability concerns or BA risk, it’s a wonder Pedroia fell so far behind Ian Kinsler in drafts this year.

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