Tyson Ross - RP Oakland A's
It was a mild surprise that Tyson Ross came north with the A's, opening the season in Oakland's bullpen. The A's instructional staff tinkered with his landing area last year and that produced great gains his fastball, bumping it to the low-to-mid 90s with occasional forays into the upper 90s. The key was however that the gain in velocity did not flatten out his fastball's burrowing action leaving Tyson a ground ball machine.
Last year Ross struck out 7.6/9 and backed that up with a 56.5% ground ball rate that split out of a lofty 65.8% GB% against left-handed hitters. In the AA portion of last year his GB rate was 61.9% (although his K rate dropped from 8.5/9 in A+ to 5.5 in AA).
At 6-5 (215) Tyson gets tremendous downward action on the ball. He backs that up with a cutter and a tight slider with nice depth. There are conflicting reports about the quality of his secondary pitches but the fact that A's chose to start him in the majors suggest that they think those offerings have developed adequately.
His mechanics have also been questioned which casts some doubt on whether the A's will continue to try and develop him as a starter. Some feel his stressful delivery has contributed to his durability problems.
His A+ control rates were acceptable in that you could tolerate a 3.4/9 walk rate if he was fanning 8.5/9. However if his K rate going forward is sub-7/9 he's going to have to be much stinger with walks, especially if he's going to be working out of the pen . His 3.60 ERA in AA last year was a little soft. While his LOB% was neutral at 68.7% Tyson's OBHIP% was very favorable at .252 leading to an artificially low .221 OBA. Groundball pitchers do tend towards lower OBHIP% and as we mentioned he made a jump last year with his stuff due to mechanical adjustments, but you can count on a bounce back at the MLB level in OBA.
The 2008 second rounder was impressive this spring with a 2.49 ERA and a 12/2 BB/K ratio in 9.2 IP and the A's staff has some physical issues so this is probably just an opportunity to give Ross a taste at the big league level and something to chew on when they return him to AA at some point to continue his development. He collected a save last Sunday, a three-inning job which essentially defines his long relief role with the team. He may stick, but it's more likely they'll return him to AA to stretch out and finish the season as a starter while they continue to tinker with him
Ross projects at this point as a back-of-the-rotation starter, with the usual injury caveat and acknowledging the possibility he redefines himself as a reliever with a solid performance here. Remember it's always good advice to not be irreplaceable at your job ...because then you'll never get promoted.
Ross doesn't fit the closer mold and barring another strong skill level jump he doesn't look quite like a #1 or #2 starter either.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - C+
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP 2008 A 0 1 4.66 19.1 7.5 2.3 0.5 .227 1.09 2009 A+ 5 6 4.17 86.1 8.6 3.4 1.0 .243 1.29 2009 AA 5 4 3.96 50.0 5.6 3.6 0.5 .221 1.20 2010 MLB 0 0 2.45 7.1 8.6 3.7 1.2 .162 0.95
Jenrry Mejia - P Mets
The Mets hung kind of a left-hand turn when they abandoned their plan to stretch 20-year-old prospect Jenrry Mejia into a starter in AA Binghamton this spring. Instead they tossed him into a few spring training games and got good results which only lent credence to their newly-hatched hair-brained scheme to start him with the bullpen of the big club.
The 6-2/162 RHP has held his own in 7 appearances, allowing 2 earned runs, and striking out 5 with a single walk and 8 hits in 7 IP. That's not the point. the point is that in Mejia the Mets have the clay of a top-half-of-the-rotation starter. He has a live arm that cruises in the mid-90s with a cross-body lane change that makes him challenging to left-handed hitters. His fastball also has a nice heavy sink to it on occasion. Couple his late action with the fact that Jenrry seems adept at adding or subtracting a half a foot here and there, and hitters are presented with several fastballs to deal with even if they happen to be sitting on one. There's even debate as to whether one version of his fastball is a slider, even if it does run up at 93-94. He can get inside on lefties and get ground balls out of anyone, as his 59.3% GB% in Binghamton in 2009 demonstrates.
Jenrry backs his assortment of fastballs with a change that is nearly plus already. His change sits 10-14mph below his fastball when he throws it right, with driving downward action. Sometimes he over throws it though and instead of confusing hitters it simply provides then a hittable fastball with less life. Mejia also has the makings of a nasty slider if someone would teach him it ... and well, there's the rub.
Mejia brings the gifts in an arm with scary life. He throws hard for a long time and his pitches show electric late action. The problem is that he doesn't know what he's doing yet. He walked 3.5/9 in AA last year, and although he has ... to this point anyway ... limited the walks at the MLB level, his command within the zone is very questionable. He's listed in places at 6-0 but that's questionable too. He throws 3/4 which gives him some life but he should be able to raise his release point and still make it dance while adding some downward plane. Overall Mejia's skills are raw. Repeating his motion, command within the strike zone, and (even though you can't prove it by his major league line yet) his control, are all areas that need seasoning. He should be down in AA, starting every fifth day and learning the craft of pitching.
The Mets have chosen to delay his development by using him in long relief. They may feel he's just a fastball/change guy, but at 20 it would be really to early to give up on his development. However it's hard to grade Mejia not really understanding the Mets plans for him. He could close eventually but that would be a ways down the road. If they are going to keep him in a 6th, 7th or 8th inning role then his value is of course significantly curtailed. I personally think Mejia has a fairly high ceiling as starter, possibly that of a strong #2 ... if the Mets chose to go that way ...
Long Term Fantasy Grade - A-
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP 2008 R 2 0 0.60 15.0 9.0 1.8 0.0 .175 0.80 2008 A- 3 2 3.49 56.2 8.3 3.7 0.6 .208 1.15 2009 A+ 4 1 1.97 50.1 7.9 2.9 0.0 .224 1.13 2009 AA 0 5 4.47 44.1 9.5 4.7 0.4 .260 1.51 2010 MLB 0 1 3.60 7.2 7.2 0.0 1.8 .262 1.00
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