Ben Zobrist:
Zobrist went 0-4 on Sunday, dropping his batting average down to .253. Given how seemingly “out of nowhere” his 2009 campaign was, owners are certainly going to have their concerns about Zobrist’s slow start, so lets dig in. At the root of Zobrist’s slow start is worse pitch recognition this season. Zobrist’s K Rate has risen a modest 2%, while his BB Rate has dropped nearly 5%. Zobrist’s swinging more often, specifically at balls out of the zone (up 9%) and as a result his power has been sapped. He’s actually seeing more pitches per plate appearance and hitting more LD’s this season, but he’s getting less loft on the ball (fewer FB’s, more GB’s) and as a result his power has been cut. All of the discrepancies between this year and last are relatively minor, but they’re all adding up to a big difference in production. I’m inclined to believe a hot streak gets these things back on track, but I can understand being concerned about Zobrist’s slow start given the lack of history. I’ll be in a holding pattern with Zobrist.
Justin Smoak:
It’s been a really slow start for the Smoak Monster, but I’m encouraged by the peripherals and what my eyes tell me. I was all over Smoak upon call-up so as an owner maybe I’m biased, but Smoak has been hitting the ball hard. He’s posted a LD Rate over 23% and shown good plate discipline with a 1.33 EYE. In his 3 AB’s on Sunday he lined out to first (leaping grab by Kotchman), was robbed of a HR by Ichiro, and singled. He entered the game with a .143 BABIP and now has a BHIP% of .056 so obviously poor luck has been a big part of the slow start. I firmly believe he’s going to be an impact bat for fantasy players this season and view now as an ideal time to buy low on the young 1B.
Francisco Liriano:
Liriano battled some command issues early but fought through it and posted another quality start, his 5th consecutive to start the season. Liriano allowed 11 base-runners (8 hits, 3 BB’s) over his 7 innings of work, but limited the Indians to just 3 ER’s thanks to 9 K’s and 9 ground outs. Liriano’s shown improved command and improved dominance this year along with improved velocity, but of all the things that stand out in Liriano’s improved statistical profile is the ground ball rate. Sunday marked the 4th straight outing in which Liriano’s recorded 9 GO’s or more and struck out 6 or more. He’s averaging 16 2/3 outs a game from Strikeout and Ground Out, which is remarkable given he averaged just 16 outs per start last season. The GB Rate has jumped over 13% and as a result Liriano’s pitching more efficiently and working deeper into games. With a K/9 at 9, a BB/9 at a respectable 3.25, and a 53% GB Rate, Liriano is back to the pitching trifecta. He’s a legitimate ace going forward.
Phil Hughes:
After struggling with his command in his first 3 outings, Phil Hughes pounded the strike zone on Sunday and got terrific results. He shutout the White Sox over 7 innings, allowing just 4 hits and more importantly, just 1 walk, while striking out 6. Through his minor league career Hughes posted trmendous K and BB Rates (10 K/9, 2.2 BB/9) and this season we’re seeing signs of those rates translating to the major league level. There’s been quite a bit of good fortune in Hughes’ early results, specifically limiting the HR’s to just 1 so far despite a 55% FB Rate and limiting hits in general thanks to a .132 BABIP against, but Hughes is taking some really nice strides to becoming a legitimate top of the rotation threat. Once some of the luck reverts Hughes will be the type of pitcher that offers above average contributions in WHIP, W’s, and K’s while struggling to keep the ERA down because of the long-ball. I’d expect something like a 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 12-15 W’s and 160 K’s.
Ben Sheets:
When Sheets signed his 1 year deal with the A’s this offseason I immediately tweeted that I liked him as a sleeper pitching in the Coliseum. But as we went through the spring and Sheets struggled with command I started questioning whether Sheets (who was recovering from elbow surgery) would have some of the same command problems we’ve seen from other guys in their first year back. As a result I didn’t end up with Sheets anywhere and now I’m pretty thankful for it. Early in the season it was apparent things weren’t right when Sheets walked 3 or more in his first 4 outings. The command specialist was having decent results 1-1 2.74 ERA, but the warning signs were there. Sheets velocity has been down over a MPH this season and he’s throwing pitches in the zone 6% less this season. The last two starts we saw some painful regression to the mean for his owners as Sheets allowed 17 ER’s in just over 7 IP this week. For the year his K:BB Ratio sits at 1 with 16 K’s and BB’s in his 30 1/3 innings. While Sheets won’t be as bad as he’s been this week, his performance YTD is now much more in line with his peripherals than when he entered the week.
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