Justin Morneau 1B (MIN) – Morneau is currently sporting a career high .372 batting average. Unfortunately for owners, it’s likely not sustainable. Morneau has hit over .300 only once in his career, back in 2006, and his current .337 singles average is ridiculously high. Here are his singles averages the prior four seasons: .278/.219/.244/.214. Clearly, that number will come down. However, Morneau is posting a terrific 1.11 EYE, and we can’t say that number will come down because Morneau’s EYE has been trending upwards since 2005: .47/.57/.70/.89/.84. Also, his LD% of 21.7% is his best since 2006, when he hit .321. Morneau has not been a .300 hitter for much of his career, but his high EYE and good LD% make him a legitimate .300 hitter this season; still, due to a lucky singles average, don’t expect that .372 average to last much longer. I think .320 is a reasonable number to set the over/under on for Morneau’s final average.
Jason Frasor RP (TOR) – While the Blue Jays are red hot, they still sit in 4th place in the AL and are unlikely to contend. As a result, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Kevin Gregg dealt at some point. In that case, Frasor will regain control of the closer’s role that he once held at the beginning of the season. Since losing that role, Frasor has pitched much better. In that time frame he has a 3.86 ERA and 17 K’s in 16.1 innings. He has not given up a run in his last 8 appearances, and that 3.86 ERA is heavily affected by just one bad outing in which Frasor was charged with 4 ER. If you have an empty bench spot, store Frasor there as he could become a valuable fantasy closer at some point this season.
Nick Markakis OF (BAL) – Markakis has been somewhat a disappointment for fantasy owners this season because he has just 15 RBI’s, putting him at just over an RBI every 3 games. However, Markakis’ AVG/OBP/SLG line of .304/.407/.436 is right in line with his career triple slash of .298/.370/.468. As a result, I have to think the RBI’s will start pouring in at some time. He should start hitting more homers (current HR/FB% is about half of his career mark). Also, his .286 AVG and .400 SLG with RISP should climb towards his season totals. His current RBI% is clearly understated, and Markakis is a buy low candidate.
Jake Peavy SP (CHW) – Peavy has pitched much better recently, but he hasn’t gotten the desired results. He has been very unlucky, especially as of late. His ERA is 6.05, but his FIP is 4.71 and xFIP is 4.27. An unlucky strand rate is the result of this. His current 63.3 LOB% is way lower than his career mark of 76.4%. Also, his HR/FB% of 13.3% is higher than his career 9.8% mark. It is especially unlucky when you consider that Peavy hasn’t had a HR/FB% in the double digits since 2003 (although the move from Petco Park to Chicago has something to do with that). Look for his ERA to start dropping steeply and soon in the near future.
Jose Lopez 2B/3B (SEA) – 2009 might have been a career year for Lopez, but he still has value. Coming into the year, his ISO’s were trending upwards (.103/.146/.191), so at age 26 I doubt his .065 ISO is for real. I expect that number to rise dramatically over the rest of the season. In particular, Lopez’s HR/FB% of 3.4% is 4 percentage points lower than his career mark and 7.7 percentage points lower than his ’09 mark. The peripherals aren’t there to match last season’s power numbers (decrease in EYE and FB%), but his power output should still be better than it is and will be for the rest of the season.
