Matt Cain (SP—Giants) Matt Cain pitched a gem of a game Friday night against the D-Backs allowing just 1 hit for a 5-0 win. The five runs the Giants scored for him must have seemed like a wealth of riches since his previous three outings the Giants had managed to score only 3 runs total. It's worth noting that Cain has 10 starts this season and has only given up more than 3 earned runs in one of them as he continues to piggyback off of his breakout year in 2009. Although Cain could be considered primarily a fly ball pitcher with a FB% of 44.3%, he's has the strong strikeout ratios and overall control to get away with it. Because of the higher fly ball rate, it's not surprising to see his xFIP of 4.61 higher than his 2.50 ERA. Since xFIP accounts for fly balls and not just home runs like FIP, it worth pointing out that Cain has an incredible infield fly ball percentage of 19.5% which is 3rd best in all of baseball. So that xFIP number is not as alarming being more than 2 runs over his ERA when you account for how many infield pop ups he induces. Cain is a must-start in all formats. The only worry is that he may not pile up the wins that he should with a Giant offense that isn't so giant.
Yovani Gallardo (SP—Brewers) Yovani Gallardo collected his first major league shutout victory on Friday outlasting Johan Santana in a pitcher's duel that wasn't decided until a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth. Gallardo only walked one batter while striking out seven but he did allow 8 base hits. However, he was aided by 3 double plays that kept his shutout intact and lowered his ERA to 2.78. Gallardo has been a strikeout machine this year averaging 9.6 per nine innings. The walks have been Gallardo major issue as he has a BB/9 of 4.3, but Gallardo's lone walk Friday could be an encouraging sign that he straightening out that part of his game. What's also been terrific is his slash line against opposing hitters of .232/.321/.326. He's been tough and appears that he might be getting tougher. One word of warning is that Gallardo has made 11 starts this year and has thrown 100+ pitches in 10 of them. Including Friday night, he has three games where he has thrown 120+ pitches. It's a concern for a young pitcher and having had arm issues in the not too distant past, you would hate see Gallardo develop any issues. But for now all system are go and he is turning out to be quite the fantasy stud.
Livan Hernandez (SP—Nationals) If you have been riding that Livan Hernandez party train throughout the season, you may want to consider getting off at the next stop or two. There are a lot of indicators that suggest that Hernandez is on borrowed time with his continued excellence. First his ERA of 2.08 is very low when you compare it to his FIP of 4.78. Almost 2 ½ runs higher. That's scary point number 1 that indicates he is heading for a fall. Scary point number two is that his peripherals are pretty poor with K/9 of 3.41 and with a LOB of 90%, it means that Livan has been dancing through a minefield and he just hasn't stepped on a bomb yet. Which bring us to scary point number three. Hernandez currently has a BHIP of .213. News flash! This will not last. Pitchers BHIP's almost always hover around the league average of .300 with little exception and certainly nowhere near as low as the feather that Hernandez is carrying around. So be prepared to look for other options or if you have some owners in your league that haven't clued in to Lucky Livan, now would be a good time to sell high.
Jayson Werth (OF—Phillies) Like the Phillies offense of late, Jayson Werth has been struggling. Since the beginning of May, Werth's average has dropped from .359 down to .309 and he has just 3 hits for his last 19 AB's. By His own admission, Werth is a streaky hitter but to his credit, despite the rough times of late, he still leads the league in doubles (22) and totals bases (100). This rough period was destined to come sooner or later since Werth's BHIP is sitting at .362 and his LD% is 17.7%, which is really not high enough to support the kind of tear he had been on. Some of Werth's success this season is owed to the fact that he has been more aggressive at the plate and taking more swing then he usually does, up about 5% from last year. He's also been elevating the ball more with a 50% FB rate (career FB% of 40.8%) and that has helped him achieve .610 SLG and a .299 ISO. Look for Werth to continue to put up so nice numbers this year. He is in a walk year on his contract and big money could be at his doorstep. He'll use Citizens Bank Park as much as he can to his advantage to boost those offensive numbers.
Josh Willingham (OF—Nationals) It's easy to overlook National players unless they are named Zimmerman and Strasburg. But Josh Willingham is earning the right to deserve some attention as well. Willingham slugged his 10th home run of the season Friday and has hit in 9 of his last 10 games batting .387 over that span. His slash line is impressive at .285/.436/.551 and the high OBP is largely due to an very good EYE of 1.21. Willingham has been fair more disciplined at the plate, reaching for pitches only 14.8% of the time compared to an 18% career rate. Consequently his CT% is up almost 3% from last year. Another encouraging factor is that his BHIP of .290 is on the low side when you compare his LD% is almost at 23% so we could see this hot streak continue. And to top it all off, he also leads all N.L. players in wOBA (weighted on-base percentage) at .429 which shows his weighted overall effectiveness. If he is still available in your league, he would be a good choice to pick up as he has been solid all around.
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