Brett Cecil: Although there is some luck behind Cecil’s good surface numbers, 7-3, 3.58 ERA, 7% HR/FB%, and a depressed .194 BHIP%, there are also good skills, 6.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and a 44% GB%. Cecil turns 24 years of age next month, so expect more skills growth. His home park and pitching in the AL East are risks, but he looks like he will be a solid SP option going forward.
David Price: Price has traded in some dominance for more ground balls, 2009/2010 K/9’s 7.2/6.7 and GB%’s 42%/47%, and the results have been outstanding, 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA last year vs. 10-2 with a 2.31 ERA this year. However, be aware that his control is still shaky, 2009/2010 BB/9’s 3.8/3.7, and that he is enjoying some good fortune, 84% S% and a .217 BHIP%. Price is good, but he isn’t this good yet; expect his ERA to head north in the near future.
Jake Arrieta: Arrieta has picked up 2 wins in his first two major league starts, which is no small feat considering the team playing behind him. While his dominance from Triple-A has carried over to the majors, so has his poor control, 2010 Triple-A/ML K/9’s 7.9/6.2 and BB/9’s 4.2/4.2. As a fly ball pitcher, 47% FB%, it is only a matter of time before the walks and longballs catch up with him. There could be some ugly growing pains for Arrieta in the near future.
Fausto Carmona: Carmona has one of those skills sets, 2009/2010 K/9’s 5.7/5.0, BB/9’s 4.7/3.3, and GB%’s 55%/56%, that can work when everything is going his way, 5-5, 3.23 ERA, 75% S%, and a .236 BHIP% this year, but when a couple of things go against him, it gets ugly, 5-12, 6.32 ERA, 64% S%, and a .313 BHIP%. The improved control is helping, but it is still high. This is the perfect time to sell high on Carmona because if he luck turns, there will be some heavy ERA damage.
CJ Wilson:? After a strong start, it is now looking like Wilson’s skills are not holding up well as a SP, 6.8 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, and a 50% GB%, but 18 walks over his last 29.2 innings, in which he has allowed 17 ER. You would think his skills would get better as he built up more stamina as a SP, but they are going in the opposite direction. Don’t give up on his just yet, but keep an eye on his next several starts. Even as a SP, he continues to eat up LHB, .107 BA in 75 AB, so a move back to the bullpen should be smooth.
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