Brett Cecil - Cecil was outstanding again last night, this time going eight innings and allowing only one run to the Yankees in a 6-1 victory. Cecil has only been hit hard once in nine times out this year, and he looks much more like the guy the Jays had stashed in the minors before last season. The 23 year old has made huge strides in improving his control while still generating a few more K's than last year, mostly due to the increased usage of his changeup (almost 25% of his offerings). I'd expect the league to catch up to him a bit the second time around, especially since he is a flyball pitcher is only allowing 5.6% of said flyballs to go over the fence thus far this year (after 14.8% last year). Still, Cecil does look like a bonafide mid-rotation starter with upside in all formats.
Justin Smoak - Smoak went 3-3 with a walk and a homer last night against Tampa, making six straight games in which he has reached base. The 23 year old rookie has pushed his ISO up to .176, he has a BABIP about 155 points underneath expectations, has a great walk rate thus far, and has a very solid contact rate of 83.3% for a power guy despite the high K rate. His numbers may not look like much right now, but I'm pretty optimistic.
Justin Masterson - Masterson earned his first win in 17 starts yesterday against the hapless White Sox, holding them to one run over 5 2/3 innings despite six more walks issued. I agree that Masterson's control is a major problem, but I'm not so sure that the LH/RH split issue is as major as it might seem, as while the OPS against vs. LHB is indeed .963, a sizable portion of that is the .370 batting average, something that's certainly part of his unlucky .384 BABIP (about 60 pts above expected). I think Masterson has enough upside to merit a reserve slot in many formats due to the K rate and ill fortune he's thrown under thus far, but he certainly hasn't shown enough to be in anyone's lineup just yet.
Mike Aviles - A substantial improvement in contact rate this season has me fairly optimistic that Mike Aviles can continue to provide value in your middle infield. Aviles doesn't have a ton of pop or speed although he did hit 20 homers and swipe 11 bags in 2008 (he was injured much of last year), but he has always hit for a high average, and this year's .330 BABIP is actually a touch low given his LD%. A helping AVG and at least average power and speed? Sounds like a reasonable MIF reserve to me, and a starter in deeper formats.
Wade Davis - Davis has been fairly wretched for about a month now, giving up eight homers in his last five outings after suffering yet another beating last night...this time against the Rangers. He's only generating swinging strikes a bit over 5% of the time despite his reasonably high-quality stuff, and I imagine that his leash is getting a bit short in Tampa with everyone else pitching so well and a sizable backlog of pitching prospects behing them. I do think that Davis has it in him to be a mid-rotation starter, but it doesn't look like this will be the year for that despite the hot start. He should be reserved in all formats right now.
