Roy Oswalt SP (HOU) – At first glance I’m tempted to say that Oswalt is likely to regress as his K/9 heading into last night’s start were 8.65 after having a K/9 of 7.12 or lower in each of the previous 5 seasons. However, Oswalt is pitching differently than he ever has before, which might mean that his high strikeout totals are sustainable. He has relied on his offspeed stuff much more than ever before. For his career, Oswalt has thrown fastballs 65.4% of the time. This season that total is down by more than ten percent. In lieu of the fastball, Oswalt has been turning to his slider and changeup much more often. While those pitches have not been uber effective themselves, their increased usage appears to have had a positive effect on the results Oswalt has been able to get with both his fastball and curveball. His fastball currently rates as 1.04 runs above average per 100 pitches, which is Oswalt’s best mark since 2005. His curveball rates as 2.25 runs above average per 100 pitches, which is a career high for Oswalt and far and away better than in previous years (-.69, .62, -.49, -.85, .56 the past 5 seasons). Oswalt continued his show of dominance last night by striking out 7 batters in 7 IP while allowing only 2 ER. Clearly Oswalt’s changed approach has yielded better numbers, and as a result his current K rate may be more sustainable than one might think after just a quick glance.
Andre Ethier OF (LAD) – Our preseason projections had Ethier rated much higher than most ADP lists, and his current production is making us look good. Ethier is developing into a legitimate 40-HR guy. At age 28, there are a number of indicators and trends working in Ethier’s favor. His FB% took a big jump last season from 32% to 41.5%, and he is maintaining that this year with a 41% mark. His HR/FB% has grown every since his rookie season: 9.2/9.4/14.1/15.4/17.2. An added bonus for Ethier this season is a career best contact rate (85.6%), which combined with his always solid BB% (9.9%) gives Ethier .77 EYE. So, you’ve got a guy who at age 28 is hitting the most fly balls of his career (percentage wise), has consistently seen the percentage of his fly balls that go over the fence rise and is putting more balls in play (thus more fly balls quantity wise) due to a career best contact rate. At his current pace Ethier would end up with around 35 HR, and I don’t see any reason why he won’t keep this pace up.
Manny Ramirez OF (LAD) – Manny hit his 3rd homer in 6 games yesterday and entering play yesterday he boasted an impressive June triple slash of .325/.372/.600. However, don’t be fooled by this hot streak as this is not the Manny Ramirez of old. His HR/FB% is just 15% and has generally been declining since 2005: 26.6/23.5/12.3/22.2/16.7. On top of that both Manny’s LD% and FB% are way down. His LD% of 18.8 is about 4 percent lower than his normal mark and well lower than his mark in that department the past two seasons: 23.4 and 25.4. His FB% of 34.2% is 5 percentage points lower than his career average. Not since 2002 has Manny had more ground balls than fly balls, but his GB/FB ratio this season is 1.38. On top of that, I believe Manny’s great control of the strike zone may be going a bit. His swing% on pitches outside of the strike zone is 29.3% is practically 10 percentage points higher than his career number. Manny’s K rates have not been affected by this because of his ability to make contact on those pitches out of the zone, but the fact that he’s swinging at that many bad pitches could be largely responsible for his lower LD%,FB% and HR/FB%.
Tim Hudson SP (ATL) – Now is a very good time to sell high on Hudson. His current 2.43 ERA is way understated as his FIP and xFIP are 4.35 and 4.43 respectively. His LD% allowed is ridiculously low, but his current BABIP of .235 is still unsustainable. His career mark in that regard is .287. Hudson’s strand rate is also not sustainable. His LOB% of 83.3% is well above his career mark of 73.9% and would 3.5 percentage points higher than his previous career high. On top of that Hudson is having a terribly tough time missing bats. Opponents have made contact on 85.3% of the pitches they have swung at, which is 5.4 percentage points higher than his career mark. As a result, his K/9 have dipped to a horrendous 3.80, the worst mark of his career. Don’t be surprised if Hudson has a tough time versus Tampa today. Once regression hits, Hudson will see that ERA rise quickly.
Michael Bourn OF (HOU) - Bourn is hitting just .266, but I think that average will begin to rise soon. His plate discipline has actually improved as he has a .58 EYE (.33, .45 the past two seasons). Both his walk rate and strikeout rate have improved from a year ago when he hit .285. Rather, two other factors are keeping Bourn’s average down. First, he hasn’t hit for much power (not that he ever hits for much). His current ISO of .064 is 20 points lower than his career mark. Also, his IFH% of 7% is lower than it has been in each of the past two seasons (11.2, 11.5). I expect both Bourn’s ISO and IFH% to rise based on his past performance and increased plate discipline this season. When that happens, the batting average will rise along with increased opportunities to steal.
