John Maine: Maine, who has been out since May 20th with a shoulder injury, is scheduled to make his final rehab start today and if all goes well he should be back in the Mets starting rotation next week. In 9 starts this year, Maine’s dominance has returned, but his control has regressed to very dangerous levels, especially when combined with his high FB%, 2009/2010 K/9’s 6.1/8.9, BB/9’s 4.2/5.7, and FB%’s 44%/52%. Even with an inflated .331 BHIP%, don’t expect too much improvement from his current 6.13 ERA, unless his control dramatically improves. There is way too much risk to own Maine in any format at this time.
Pedro Alvarez: The Pirates are ready to call up Alvarez and he will immediately become their starting 3B. He is hitting for power in Triple-A, 13/53/.280 with 15 Doubles in 239, but be careful, his 72% Ct% means that he could struggle against major league pitching. The Pirates are going nowhere so they can afford to live through any early struggles, but if you are contending in your fantasy league, the damage to your team BA may be something that you can’t afford.
Gerardo Parra: With Conor Jackson being traded to the A’s, Parra is expected to pick up the bulk of playing time in LF, not that he is doing anything to deserve it, 1/10/.250 in 112 AB. Despite just 1 HR, the 23-year-old is showing a little pop, 8 doubles, but will need to greatly improve his 56% GB%, if he wants to turn some of those doubles into HR. Unless that power comes, he is going to have to improve his approach at the plate, 7% BB% and an 81% Ct%, for BA improvement. His minor league resume and 2 triples this year show some speed, but he has not even come close to transferring that to the major league level, 0 steal attempts this year and 7 caught steals in 12 attempts last year. At his age, there is still time for him to develop, but right now, his value, at best, is limited to NL-only leagues.
Kosuke Fukudome: Fukudome is not providing power or speed and with just an average 81% Ct%, he is not helping in the BA category either, 6/23/.276 with 8 doubles in 170 AB. When he first came to the major leagues in 2008, he had skill on the basepaths, 12 steals in 16 attempts, but those days appear to be over for the 33-year-old, 13 caught steals in 23 attempts over the last two seasons. This looks like a player in decline and one whose value is now limited to just NL-only leagues.
Chad Bilingsley: Billingsley was placed on the 15-day DL retroactive to June 12th with a groin strain and should be able to return after the required 15 days. Although his control is a bit on the wild side, 3.2 BB/9, the rest of his skill set, 8.1 BB/9 and a 48% GB%, says he should be better than his current 4.34 ERA. While his skills are better on the road, 9.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and a 51% GB% , than at home, 7.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and a 46% GB%, it still doesn’t justify the extreme ERA difference, Home/Road ERA’s 5.48/2.78. Look for his performance at his home, pitcher-friendly park to improve.
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