Mike Pelfrey - When Joseph said that he expected Pelfrey's ERA to move above 4.00, I'm sure he didn't expect it to happen in just a week or two. Nine baserunners and six earned runs (in just 1 1/3 IP) later, Pelfrey's ERA sits at 4.01, a mere 16 days since it was under 3.00. His ERA in July is over 15.00, his AVG against is over .500 this month (and there's still some regression to be had in his BABIP for the season!), and he hasn't struck out more than three men in a start since June 8th. He should be reserved in all formats right now, and although he is a legitimate back-end starter when he's right, he clearly isn't worthy of that position right now. He is the same guy he's been since showing up in New York: average control, subpar K rates, above average HR rates. It adds up to a #4 or #5 starter, not the frontline guy that he was made out to be in some circles early this year.
Johnny Cueto - Cueto won again yesterday to improve to 9-2 on the year, and with his excellent stuff and that gaudy record it's easy to assume that he's turned a corner and is on his way to becoming a fantasy ace. Unfortunately, Cueto is profiting from a strand rate of 77.6% and a HR/FB rate that is about half of what you'd expect it to be in that park, not to mention a K:BB ratio that is less than one during his past six starts - starts in which he has allowed a total of five earned runs over 38 2/3 innings. There's been a lot of noise made over how he's pitching to contact now instead of trying to blow people away, and all I'll say to that is that there are always ways to explain wins away...there are reasons that you don't see consistent success out of ANYONE with a K rate under 4.5, and that's precisely the category that Cueto has found himself in over the past six outings. For me, Cueto is definitely a sell-high candidate in single season formats.
Pedro Alvarez - Alvarez had his six-game hitting streak snapped last night, but he still walked three times and is finding a way to contribute offensively every day now. The 23 year old hit 333/419/590 over 60 games at AA last season and followed that up with a 277/363/533 effort at AAA in 66 games this year before coming to the Steel City, bashing 26 homers in those 126 games. He clearly has 30-homer power, and he should be getting quite a bit more press than he is right now. The K rate is certainly a concern, but the fact that Mark Reynolds is owned in 100% of ESPN leagues while Pedro Alvarez is owned in 3% is just silly....they are reasonably similar players.
Anibal Sanchez - After scuffling on the road (typically) for his last few outings, Sanchez came back to Florida last night and picked up a quality start, allowing two earned runs (plus two unearned) over six innings in a no-decision against the Rockies. Sanchez has posted a 2.56 ERA through 9 starts at home this season, striking out batters more than 50% more often than he does on the road. One note of caution, however, is that Sanchez has allowed eight unearned runs at home this year as well. Still, expecting him to post a mid-to-high 3.00's ERA at home and a mid-to-high 4.00's ERA on the road leads to the same conclusion that you'd likely find without the unearned runs: Sanchez is a worthwhile option in most formats when pitching at home, but likely should be reserved most of the time on the road.
Geovany Soto - Lo and behold, Soto is magically given more playing time and the production just keeps on coming. Soto singled, doubled, and walked yesterday against the Astros, and he's now hitting 370/453/674 for the month despite playing nearly every day. It's about time. Soto is a must-start in all formats and is likely one of the top-5 catchers in the game....it's unbelieveable that a guy this talented was platooning with Koyie Hill for three months.
