Mike Pelfrey - After another 13 baserunners in 4 2/3 yesterday, I think it's time to throw out the caution flag on Mike Pelfrey. In his last five starts Pelfrey has gone 28 1/3 innings while allowing 43 hits. He's walked 11 and struck out only 9 during that span, and most of his rates (HR/FB, GB%, BB/9, K/9, contact rate) are returning to their normal levels pretty quickly. His FIP ERA has been quite a bit higher than his actual ERA all season, and with a BABIP that is still about 35 points on the fortunate side I think some more regression is likely. He's still a solid back-end candidate for most rotations in my mind, but I'll stand by my comment almost two months ago that his ceiling is that of a mid-rotation guy, and that he's more likely to be more of a #4 type.
Dan Uggla - Uggla had three more singles and a walk yesterday, and he's raised his batting average 18 points in his last six games by posting multi-hit games in five of them (and picking up one hit in the sixth). As a late bloomer one might expect Uggla to decline early as well, and at first glance the declining ISO's would have you thinking you were on the right track. The ISO's are a bit misleading though, because Uggla has been steadily hitting more grounders the past few seasons. His HR/FB rate has been much higher this year and last than it was in 2007 and 2008 when his ISO's were higher, so I wouldn't say the power is declining. Uggla is benefitting from a sizable dose of luck this year, as his BABIP is almost 80 higher than you'd expect given his paltry 12% LD rate. Other than a dip in AVG, Uggla still should be expected to provide similar value for the 2nd half.
Derek Lowe - Lowe is gradually turning back into the reasonable mid to back-end rotational option that he's been for most of this decade, as another 7 IP, 2 ER outing last night (against the Phillies on the road) gives him four quality starts in his last five. The strikeout rates have been steadily increasing, the ERA's have improved each month, and even with the two-run homer by Greg Dobbs last night he's still only allowed four homers in his last 80 IP (he allowed four just in April to get off to a poor start this year). Yes, the 37 year old definitely has a limited upside, but he has been solid enough of late to merit some trust.
Geovany Soto - Soto had a single and a pair of doubles yesterday in the Cubs' 9-4 win over Arizona, and the 27 year old catcher is now hitting 277/404/468 for the year. Despite this (and also despite the fact that Koyie Hill has an OPS of .555), Soto is still only playing about 60% of the time recently. If anything Soto has suffered from some poor fortune this year, as his BABIP of .326 is probably about 40 points on the low side. His patience at the plate has been tremendous this year, as he has only swung at 13.5% of pitches outside of the strike zone. Soto is a terrific offensive player for a catcher, so we'll see if Piniella is smart enough to use him a bit more in the second half. Piniella may be a bit unorthodox, but I can't imagine he's going to let Koyie Hill continue to suck up outs at this pace.
David Bush - Despite being skipped twice in the last six weeks, Bush is continuing to pitch rather well for the Brew Crew. Yesterday's 6 IP, 1 ER outing against the Giants was his fourth straight quality start (and fifth of six), and he hasn't had a disaster start since May 21st. That being said, Bush is still striking out less than 5 per nine even during this streak, and his avg FB velocity is still hovering around 86 mph. His control has been better during this run, but he is still sporting the worst walk rate of his career, the worst contact% of his career, and a BABIP that is about 25 points to the fortunate side to go along with a rather fortuitous schedule lately. He's not a good bet to continue this stretch of solid outings for very long.
