Edwin Jackson: Considering that Jackson’s “breakout” season in 2009, 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA, was due partly to luck, 76% S% and a .272 BHIP%, it wasn’t surprising to see his numbers decline with the D’Backs, 6-10 with a 5.16 ERA. However, those numbers are also slanted, this time due to bad luck, 66% S%, so the real Jackson lies somewhere in between. His strikeout/ground ball package, 7.0 K/9 and a 51% GB%, is intriguing but until Jackson reins in the walks, 4.0 BB/9, you are most likely looking an ERA in the 4.50 range.
Magglio Ordonez: At 36 years of age, Ordonez’s power is now league average, 12 HR and 17 doubles in 323 AB and his speed is completely gone, 1 SB. However his excellent approach at the plate, 11% BB and an 88% Ct% , still makes him a valuable fantasy players, .303 BA. With a solid string of above average BHIP%’s, 2007/2008/2009/2010 #’s .309/.286/.300/.267, don’t be surprised if Ordonez outperforms his current BA the rest of the way should his BHIP% trend toward his recent historical output.
Conor Jackson: Jackson, who has been out since the beginning of July, still does not have a timetable for his return. Although he won’t offer much in the way of power or speed, 1 HR, 13 doubles, and 5 steals (but don’t expect him to run too much coming back from a hamstring injury) in 196 AB, his excellent approach at the plate, 12% BB% and an 88% Ct%, and depressed .222 BHIP%, should give him some nice BA potential from his current .245 mark, when he returns.
Jose Bautista: For the amount of power that he is generating, 33 HR and 25 doubles in 380 AB, Bautista’s 79% Ct% is more than acceptable. Although his 52% FB% will limit his BA upside, the power, contact skills, and extremely depressed .167 BHIP%, means we can expect upside from his current .263 BA.
Danny Valencia: Valencia is off to a hot start in his major league career, 1/13/.347 in 121 AB. However, with no power and just a decent approach at the plate, 8% BB% and an 86% Ct%, it is hard to buy into it. If his .355 BHIP% begins to normalize, all that is left is a singles hitting 3B, who doesn’t make enough contact to justify the complete lack of power.
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