Bobby Jenks RP (CHW) – I talked today about how Putz could easily close out ballgames if Jenks continues to struggle. The fact of the matter is, though, that Jenks really hasn’t struggled. Sure, his ERA is 5.13, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Jenks is striking out batters at an elite level (11.38 K/9). His 3.19 K/BB ratio is solid and is actually a tad better than his career mark. Meanwhile, Jenks’ 55.7 GB% is also elite. Unfortunately for Jenks, his HR/FB% is 4.3 percentage points higher than his career mark. That’s level of bad luck is nothing in comparison, though, to how comically bad Jenks’ BABIP and LOB% have been. His BABIP is 84 points higher than his career average, while his LOB% of 62.7% is way lower than his career LOB% of 73.4%. Both numbers are career worsts (by a ton). Jenks’ FIP of 2.81 and xFIP of 2.55 indicate that he is still a quality closer, and if he is able to keep the closer’s job he should post valuable numbers for owners down the stretch.
Gio Gonzalez SP (OAK) – Gonzalez picked up his tenth win of the season while holding the Rangers scoreless over 7 innings. The outing also dropped Gonzalez’s ERA to 3.51. In his third season, Gonzalez is seeing his BB rate continue to drop. His BB/9 from ’08-10 are 6.62/5.11/3.96. That is certainly an optimistic looking trend for the young pitcher. The only negative is that Gonzalez’s increased control this season has come at a sacrifice to his strikeouts. His K/9 was a whopping 9.94 last year, but it sits at a pedestrian 7.28 this season. Before I become a big Gonzalez believer, I need to see the increased control come without a hit to his K totals. It appears to have benefited him this year, but I think what’s really benefitting Gonzalez is a BABIP that is 27 points below his career mark, a LOB% that is 6 percentage points higher than his career mark and a HR/FB% that is 4.7 percentage points lower than his career mark. Gonzalez is getting lucky in all three of those areas, and when those numbers normalize he is likely to take a big hit in ERA and WHIP.
Adam Lind DH (TOR) – Lind is having an extremely disappointing season as his .305/.370/.562 line from a season ago has fallen off dramatically to .221/.283/.379 this season. The main reason for the drop off is all the plate discipline improvements that Lind made last season appear to have gone out the window this year. In 2008, Lind chased balls outside of the strike zone 34% of the time. Last year, Lind only chased 24.7% of the time. However, this season that number is back to 34.7% of the time. As a result, Lind’s EYE the past three seasons has followed a similar trend: .27/.53/.30. Most disturbing is that Lind is striking out more than he has ever before, whiffing at 26.6% clip. Despite entering his peak (27 YO), Lind won’t be on any bounce back lists for 2011 unless he shows some serious improvements in his plate discipline over the remainder of the season.
Travis Snider OF (TOR) – The Jays tried out Snider in the leadoff spot yesterday, and he responded by going 2-4 with 2 walks. Snider’s skill set is clearly not one of a leadoff hitter, but hitting there boosts his value. He has spent most of the year hitting towards the bottom of the lineup. At 22 YO, Snider has seen his K% drop 8 percentage points, ISO climb 51 points, LD% climb 13 percentage points and HR/FB% climb 8 percentage points. His wrist injury may hide what is a massive breakout for the young slugger, and I would target him in keeper leagues.
Dan Johnson 1B (TB) – Johnson played a part in yesterday’s Jays/Rays offensive outburst. Johnson, who is expected to carry some of the load with Pena being on the DL, went 2-2 with 2 RS, 4 RBI, 2 BB and a HR. Johnson, a former Athletics prospect, has hit well in his minor league career (.291/.390/.527 line over ten seasons). However, that success has not translated to the major league level. In particular, Johnson’s power has been disappointing as his slugging percentage is just .421 with a .173 ISO. One skill that has carried over to the majors with Johnson is his plate discipline. He has a career EYE of .93 thanks in large part to an above average BB% of 13%. In 4 games for the Rays, Johnson has already walked 5 times. In the Rays lineup and with his history of plate discipline, if Johnson can just carry over some of the power he has flashed in the minors, he will be a suitable replacement for Pena.
