Matt Kemp:
One of the things we preach at Fantistics is how important batting EYE is and the reason being how often it aligns with consistency. When we talk about consistency we’re not only focused on consistency within seasons but from season to season and Matt Kemp is a near perfect example. Kemp’s fantasy value hit a peak this offseason when owners started valuing his potential 30-30 value with a career .300 average as a 1st rd talent. In a vacuum those arguments made sense, but looking at Kemp’s EYE left a lot to be desired. Kemp had been a streak hitter throughout his career and while the upside was immense, the reliability of the performance was questionable because of the consistency issues that all stem from a weak EYE. Well we’re now seeing those effects. While Kemp hasn’t been a disaster this season (19 HR’s, 16 SB’s), the production hasn’t been an anchor for fantasy owners. His batting average has dipped as his LD Rate tailed off and his BABIP normalized and owners have been given 2 months of elite production with 3 months of horrible production. Head-to-head owners have no idea what to expect and while Roto owners will get the year-end stats of a Top 75 player, it will be an extremely bumpy ride. It’s an important lesson for fantasy owners to know and to understand. While Kemp certainly had the skills, the production, and the upside of a 1st rd pick, he may have had too much downside to draft at that level. Thursday night Kemp went 3-5 and knocked out his 19th HR while knocking in 4. Kemp’s streakiness is evidenced by the fact that he’s picked up 8 of his 10 hits and 7 of his 10 RBI’s in 2 August games. The others he’s gone 2-26 with 9 K’s.
Shane Victorino:
The flyin’ hawaiin was activated on Thursday and appeared in the game as a pinch hitter, walking and stealing a base in the 7th inning. There’s no reason for concern about Victorino not starting as manager Charlie Manuel apparently had promised Ben Francisco the start the day before (why they activated Victorino I still don’t know). Digging in on Victorino’s season it looks as if he’s managed to maintain his fantasy value despite some deteriorating peripherals. He’s striking out more, walking less, and hitting fewer LD’s than ever before. He’s managed to survive the deteriorating skill by hitting a few more HR’s and being more aggressive on the base-paths. While the .258 BABIP screams room for regression, a 15% LD Rate produces an expected BABIP around .275. Without much improvement in Victorino’s batting average expected going forward, he’s really a 4 category contributor. Still a worthwhile asset in all fantasy leagues, but one that’s value may be dependent on lineup positioning. If Victorino is inserted at the top of the lineup where he’ll get more AB’s, more opportunities to Run and score Runs, he’ll maintain his Top 100 value, but if he hits down in the order his value could take a serious hit. Hitting leadoff he’s hit .266/.330/.468 while posting a sub. .675 OPS in the 5th and 7th slots.
Pat Burrell:
Burrell extended his hitting streak to 7 games with a monstrous 2-4 effort that included 2 more HR’s and 5 RBI’s. Since coming over to San Francisco, Burrell has hit .293/.385/.520 with a solid .76 EYE. The numbers are remarkably similar to Burrell’s last stint in the NL with Phillies when he had averaged over 30 HR’s during a 4 year period. Burrell seems ancient since he debuted at age 23, but he’s just 33 years old (turning 34 in October). He’s shown his streakiness since becoming a Giant posting OPS by month of 1.019, .596, 1.182. It’s evident the streakiness and thus the risk will be there, but Burrell’s still playing at a pace consistent with a 30+ HR bat and posting a good EYE. The good should outweigh the bad and Burrell’s worth a look in all formats. I’ve recently added him over the hobbled Josh Willingham, viewing them as similar players with Burrell the healthier and hotter entity.
Randy Wells:
Wells remains an enigma. He followed up a horrible June (6.14 ERA) with a fantastic July (1.83 ERA), but now has posted 2 disaster starts in 3 August outings. He was rocked again on Thursday allowing 6 ER’s on 8 hits and 3 BB’s. The long-ball was an issue as he surrendered 3 HR’ that accounted for all 7 runs (6 ER). Wells had been working his production back in line with his peripherals (entered Thursday’s start with a 3.56 FIP thanks to a 7.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 45% GB Rate), but Thursday’s disaster marked the 8th start he’s surrendered 5 or more ER’s this season. I noted early in the season that Wells’ issues were largely out of the stretch and that remains (.814 OPS against with men on, .674 OPS with bases empty). This actually explains the hit or miss performance with Wells pretty well. When he allows base-runners things spiral out of control and pitching out of the wind-up he can get in a groove and pitch great games. There’s no rhyme or reason to when they’re coming (blow-ups against SEA, HOU, SF, gems against STL, PHI), so owners have to view Wells as a dice-roll every time out. Even with the numbers screaming a likely regression, the weakness out of the stretch makes him quite flammable.
Johan Santana:
Just when you think you have a player figured out, they re-discover some of their glory and you’re left confounded. Johan was the 2004-2006 version on Thursday as he absolutely dominated the Rockies while tossing a complete game shutout. He struck out 10 and allowed just 6 base-runners (4 hits, 2 BB’s) while picking up his 10th win of the season. This comes just two starts away from an 11 K outing against the Braves. Much of the season we’ve talked about Santana’s declining K Rate, increasing BB Rate, and increasing LD Rate, but since the calendar turned to August he’s been a different guy (10.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9). Now if you believe in splits, Santana has posted an ERA about half a run lower in August and September than the rest of the months. I have a hard time imagining Santana somehow summons his old self as soon as the calendar turns over, but he’s certainly been on a role of late. I still think he’s a solid #2 fantasy SP that is in a slow but obvious decline, but the recent bump in K’s is certainly encouraging. Perhaps he has an elite 2nd half run in him.
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