Mike Leake - I think we've moved into full-on warning mode with the Mike Leake situation, as Leake failed to produce a quality start for the eighth time in his last ten tries last night against the Cards. Leake gets so much movement on his sinker that his first 11 starts were a definite bandwagon starter: 5-0, 73 IP, 65 H, 18 ER, 4 HR, 25 BB, 50 K. Aside from the average control and strikeout numbers (offset somewhat by a GB% over 50) that's a pretty solid MLB debut. Beginning June 10th, his past ten starts have painted a much uglier picture as the league has adjusted: 2-4, 53 IP, 68 H, 36 ER, 11 HR, 19 BB, 28 K. As always, the truth is probably somewhere in between. Leake will need to, as Joe Morgan would say, "adjust to the adjustements that the hitters have made." Normally I would wager that Leake is bumping up against an innings requirement, but with the Reds still hanging on to the NL Central lead AND with Dusty Baker in the dugout, the odds of Leake being sent out there until his arm falls off are somewhat significant. I would be very cautious in using Leake the rest of the way, as his stuff is certainly not great enough that he can suffer a dip in his GB% (as evidenced not only by GB/FB over the past two months, but also most painfully by HR rate) and offer you much value.
Alcides Escobar - There's no reason to be concerned more than you normally would be for Alcides Escobar, who started in RF last night at the top of the order due to a severe roster crunch after the Jim Edmonds deal and a couple of nagging injuries to Hart and Braun. Escobar, as Drew mentioned, has seen some skills growth during this disappointing season, improving his contact rate, his ISO, more than doubling his walk rate, and posting an excellent LD% that is somehow not reflected well in a BABIP that might well be 60 points light. After swiping 46 bags last season between the minors and Milwaukee, Escobar has only managed 8 with the Brewers this year, and that's one of the biggest disappointments for fantasy players of course. The speed is there, and I would imagine 20-30 steals will be forthcoming in the near future....Escobar is still only 23. All in all, he's a player I would consider trying to acquire cheaply in keeper leagues this offseason.
Mike Minor - Mike Minor was fairly solid in his first MLB test....although it was more of a first marking period pop quiz with the Astros on the prowl. Minor allowed five hits and four runs (three earned) over six innings, walking one and fanning five on 94 pitches. Minor blew through the entire Brave system in about 12 months, but that was pretty much the plan to begin with as a 22 year old lefty from Vanderbilt. Minor is pretty polished already as a pitcher, but his AA performance this season worries me...he's a bit too hittable (8 AA homers allowed) for any expectations of front-line performance. I expect Minor to be more of a mid-rotation guy, and a mid-rotation guy on a solid team is worth owning in most formats long-term. With Medlen on the shelf and Kawakami clearly distrusted, Minor is also worth owning now in the short-term, as the Braves will likely let him pitch as long as he can keep them in games.
Brett Wallace - Wallace has started out his career going 8 for his first 24 with a pair of doubles, potentially giving the Astros three (or maybe even four!) viable major league starters in their starting lineup. The 23 year old Wallace doesn't have a ton of power, but playing in Houston should augment what power is there, and the line-drive machine could easily be expected to post batting averages in the .300 range. Perhaps a RH-hitting John Olerud would be a good way to look at Wallace potentially, and even hitting in that pathetic lineup Wallace is likely worth a roster spot in the majority of formats already.
Lorenzo Cain - Cain has hit in all four since being recalled by the Brew Crew, going 5-11 with a pair of doubles and a steal. Cain broke out a bit in the minors this year, hitting 317/402/432 at AA and AAA combined with 26 steals in a bit over half a season's worth of games (84). Cain put up 51 XBH back in 2008 over three levels, so he isn't strictly a burner, but it does seem like SB's will probably be the area where he can provide the most marginal value right now. He's shown a bit of upside this year, and is likely worth a play in NL-only leagues as long as Carlos Gomez is sidelined with a concussion.
