Jonathan Broxton RP (LAD) – Kuo blew a 3-1 lead last night, allowing 3 ER to the Braves in the bottom of the 9th and taking the loss. I find it hard to believe the experiment with him at closer and Broxton in a setup role will last long. Broxton has elite skills that Kuo does not have. Those include a 3.33 K/BB ratio, 11.41 K/9 and 49.1 GB%, which have all led to an outstanding FIP of 2.37. However, Broxton has “struggled” lately and has an actual ERA of 3.42. That can mainly be attributed to irregular work and a terribly unlucky BABIP. Currently Broxton’s BABIP is .364, which is about 40 points higher than his career mark. Once that normalizes Broxton’s actual ERA will show how dominant he has actually been, and hopefully the Dodgers recognize this fact sooner rather than later.
Dan Uggla 2B (FLA) – Uggla, who has had some fine seasons already in his consistent 5 year career, is on pace to post his best season as a professional. He’s on pace to set a career high in HR, and his current .291 batting average is a career best. The last three seasons Uggla’s BA was much lower: .245/.260/.243. Unfortunately for Uggla owners, I would expect that number to be much lower from here on out, although he’ll still likely finish with a career high in that category. Both Uggla’s ISO (.235, career mark of .227) and EYE (.56, career mark of .48) indicate no major improvements in his game. However, Uggla is posting a career high .275 singles average. Here are his singles averages the past 3 seasons: .186/.234/.220. Clearly this season is an outlier and not expected considering the minimal improvements in EYE and ISO. Also surprising is that this is happening despite Uggla posting a rather paltry 14.5 LD%, a career worst. So, while the power Uggla is showing and has always shown will continue, the unexpectedly high BA will not as Uggla’s singles average should regress from his current .275 mark to his previous three year average of .215.
Roy Oswalt SP (PHI) – A quick look at Oswalt’s numbers via our wonderful Fantistics charts shows that, despite a strong season, Oswalt has been a bit unlucky from a fantasy perspective. While his ERA is a very solid 3.34, his expected ERA sits at 2.91. Also, Oswalt has posted 17 quality starts in 23 games started. Yet, his record sits at 7-13. According to our charts, Oswalt’s number of quality starts puts him in line for 13 expected wins, nearly double his actual total. So, if our starts are any indication, Oswalt’s fantasy stock may still have some room to grow as a reversal of fortune will lead to a slight drop in ERA and increase in victories.
Chad Billingsley SP (LAD) – Billingsley threw well last night in a no decision against the Braves and is having a nice bounce back season. He has good skills, but downward trending K/9 indicate that for whatever reason Billingsley, at a young age, is losing his ability to generate whiffs. His K/9 the past three seasons have been as such: 9.01/8.21/7.44. He has made up for the drop off this season with an improved GB% (up to 49% from 45.3%) and BB/9 (down to 3.14 from 3.94). Again, those numbers leave Billingsley with solid skills, but the decreased dominance puts a cap on his potential. Billingsley’s swing data supports the drop off in whiffs, as opponents have career highs in contact percentage both on pitches inside and outside of the strike zone against Billingsley.
Andrew McCutchen OF (PIT) – McCutchen hit his 10th homer of the year last night, and his power has failed to take a step forward in the young outfielder’s second season. McCutchen’s ISO has dropped from .185 to .150, as he had 2 more homers, 4 more doubles and 4 more triples in just 20 more at bats last season. A closer look shows that McCutchen’s drop in ISO may just be the result of the variances of what happens to balls in play, but he certainly is not taking steps to improve his power. His EYE of .64 is almost identical to the .65 one he posted last season. Also, last year his LD/GB/FB breakdown of balls in play was 18.6%/42.3/39.1, and this season it’s an eerily similar 18.5/42.5/39. McCutchen’s HR/FB% is slightly down to 7.4% from 8.8%. So, while it’s a little disappointing that McCutchen has not taken strides in this department, we should admire such consistency for a young player, and hopefully more power comes down the line.
