Madison Bumgarner SP (SF) – Bumgarner got absolutely lit up yesterday, as he gave up 7 ER without making it out of the third inning. He did strike out 3, though, while walking just 1. I wouldn’t worry too much if I was a Bumgarner owner. This ugly game for him was more about correcting his BABIP and HR/FB% (he gave up 3 first inning homers), both of which are near league average now, than it was about Bumgarner pitching horribly. Bumgarner has come a long way this year. He went from a guy who was “lost” and couldn’t regain his velocity back to a guy who became very valued within the organization (7-1 at AAA). Currently Bumgarner, in his first significant go around at the major league level, has a very solid 2.75 K/BB ratio and league average GB rate through 12 starts, which is very impressive for the youngster. He’ll need to up the K rate in years to come, but for now the command is extremely encouraging for someone who just turned 21.
Leo Nunez RP (FLA) – Nunez almost blew his 8th save of the season yesterday, but managed to get out of a bases loaded jam as the Marlins won 5-4. Despite some job insecurity as a result of the 7 blown saves, Nunez has actually pitched pretty well this season. He upped his K/9 dramatically from 7.86 to 9.79 while simultaneously dropping his BB/9 from 3.54 to 2.70. Perhaps most strikingly, Nunez has reduced his HR/9 from 1.70 to .51 as a result of a whopping 13 percentage point increase in his GB rate (54.1% now) and his HR/FB% being cut in half. However bad luck, in the form of a .351 BABI, has prevented Nunez from achieving the sub-3 ERA he deserves (2.56 FIP, 2.90 xFIP).
Joey Votto 1B (CIN) – One of the reasons the Fantistics draft software is so elite, is its ability to recognize tremendous value. So, if you were a subscriber and eschewed conventional wisdom and ADP’s and listened to our VAM, you were able to draft Votto in the beginning of the second round (possibly very late 1st round) ahead of some other very popular names. While such an idea might have seemed crazy at the time, Votto entered yesterday ranked as the second best fantasy 1B in terms of roto value, a mere dollar behind Albert Pujols. That value should only increase as Votto went 4-7 yesterday with 2 HR and 4 RBI.
Omar Infante 2B (ATL) – Infante’s recent power surge continued yesterday as he homered for the 5th time in August and the 4th time in six games. Infante now has 7 homers on the season, matching what he hit the past three seasons – combined! Infante, though, has the same old bad EYE (.35) and low ISO (.113); both of those numbers are below his career marks. Really, his hot streak is being driven by a HR/FB% that is 2.1 percentage points higher than his career mark and 4.5 percentage points higher than his previous three year average. Also, his singles average sits at a whopping .356 despite a LD% of 18.5%. His singles averages the past three seasons were .281/.259/.356 with respective LD% of 20.6/30.1/26.7. In other words, what Infante is doing right now is unsustainable, as peripherally speaking, he is actually playing his worst ball of the past four seasons. So, if your trade deadline has not passed I’d try and move the hot hitter for anything valuable.
Joe Saunders SP (ARZ) - It’s hard to believe that in this day and age a baseball organization would be paying too much attention to a pitcher’s wins, but I can’t fathom why else the Diamondbacks gave up prized pitcher Dan Haren for a package centering around Joe Saunders. The only reason I can think of is that Saunders own 17 and 16 games respectively in ’08 and ’09. However, he has never really pitched well. In both those seasons Saunders had a K/9 of under 5 and failed to post a K/BB ratio of over 2, while his GB% remained slightly above average but not high enough to balance out those issues. Saunders still had the wins and the luck (low BABIP and high strand rate both seasons) to mask his inability to pitch effectively. Apparently Arizona couldn’t see behind that mask, and now they are finding out the hard way. Saunders got rocked last night, giving up 6 ER in 4 IP while walking 3 and striking out 1. Not even the switch in leagues has helped him much as Saunders has a K/9 with the Diamondbacks of under 5. More disturbingly, his GB rate, which was already lower than normal this season with LAA, has slipped to below average with Arizona (40.6%). So, despite the league switch, Saunders should be avoided in all mixed fantasy leagues.
