Carlos Gonzalez – Carlos Gonzalez had another huge day at the plate Sunday against the Pirates, recording 4 Hits, knocking out his 25th HR of the season and stealing base No. 18. Entering Sunday’s game, Gonzalez had an impressive .245 ISO and .566 SLG% and 17 steals in 22 tries. Helped by an unsustainable .368 BABIP, Gonzalez has improved his BA from .284 in ’09 to .321 this season while his OBP has actually dropped 4 points to .349. That’s because of a reduced walk rate, which is the main criticism on Gonzalez this season. After walking in 8% of his ABs in ’09, Gonzalez is now taking a free pass in a mere 4%. Based off his minor league walk rates, nobody expected Gonzalez to be an especially patient hitter in the majors but he needs to start drawing a few more walks to help boost his OBP. Aside from the walks, Gonzalez has a real chance at 30 HR/30 steals in his age-24 season. You don’t need me to tell you that the Rockies’ outfielder is hitting like one of the best and brightest young players in all of baseball.
Jason Marquis – Jason Marquis made his first start since April on Sunday against the Dodgers, lasting just 4 innings and allowing 5 runs (2 ER), 4 hits, 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. In 2009, Marquis posted the lowest FIP of his career (4.10) thanks, in part, to a career high 55.6% GB%. Predictably, he also walked too many batters (3.33 BB/9) for a pitcher who doesn’t miss a lot of bats (4.79 K/9). The good news is that he did manage to allow just 0.63 HR/9. By improving upon nearly every key indicator at the age of 30, Marquis enjoyed his best big league season in 2009. However, I wouldn’t expect Marquis to maintain this type of success moving forward. In nearly 1,500 major league innings, Marquis has recorded a 4.84 FIP, 1.11 HR/9 and 1.49 K/BB. Those numbers are significantly worse than Marquis’ totals in 2009. Even if he can string together a few good outings, Marquis isn’t worth a roster spot in any fantasy league format.
Jay Gibbons – We have a Jay Gibbons sighting, everyone! After not playing in the majors since 2007, Gibbons emerged Sunday to collect an RBI single as a pinch hitter for the Dodgers. He has been crushing the ball at AAA to tune of 19 HRs, 83 RBI and a .969 OPS this season. For his career, Gibbons owns a respectable .193 ISO and .768 OPS to go along with three seasons of at least 23 HRs. He’s 33 now, and playing a platoon role for the Dodgers, so it’s very unlikely he garners any fantasy attention before the end of this season. However, looking toward 2011, you might want to keep an eye on Gibbons in case he becomes a sleeper option in next season’s draft or auction. It’s doubtful, but so was the idea that the former Oriole would ever make the majors again.
Ted Lilly – The Dodgers’ lefty picked up a quality start on Sunday against the Nationals, allowing 3 ER in 6 innings. He struck out 6 and didn’t walk a batter. Prior to Sunday’s start, Lilly owned a 1.45 HR/9 so it’s a bit concerning that he allowed two more dingers on Sunday. As I mentioned last week when I wrote about Lilly, his ERA is misleading because, based off his key indicators, Lilly is pitching much closer to his career average ERA of 4.20 rather than his current mark of 3.60. Lilly’s GB% is down to just 29% while he’s striking out fewer batters than in ’09 and walking more to go along with the high HR/9 rate. He’s also enjoying a .252 BABIP which is 32 points below his .284 career mark. The numbers say that Lilly will not maintain his current success during the next 1.5 months, so I recommend selling high if you can.
Jerry Hairston Jr. – Jerry Hairston Jr. blasted his 9th HR of the season against the Diamondbacks Sunday and finished the game 3-for-4 with 2 RBI. It’s been a tough season for Hairston Jr. as his ISO has dropped from .144 in ’09 to just .106 and he owned an atrocious .655 OPS prior to Sunday. In 2008, as a part-time player for the Reds, Hairston recorded an impressive .871 OPS, .326 BA and tallied 15 steals. However, that production was inflated thanks to an unsustainable .357 BABIP. During the past two seasons when Hairston’s OPS has been around .700 and he’s received regular ABs, his BABIP has dropped to the .265-range. For this season, Hairston’s numbers are right in line with his career marks which means no serious playoff contender, in fantasy or MLB, should be employing Hairston Jr. with regular ABs (I’m looking at you, San Diego).
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