James Shields SP (TB) – I was skeptical about Shields’ improved K/9 this season, but he has managed to sustain a high level of dominance. He entered last night’s start with a K/9 of 8.47, by far a career high for Shields. Unfortunately for Shields, it hasn’t helped – his ERA is a career worst 4.96 after last night’s loss. Shields gave up a homer to Nick Swisher in the game, and the long ball has really killed him. He is giving up a career worst 1.54 HR/9. Normally, I would suggest Shields’ HR/FB% of 14.1% is unlucky (and it is a bit), but the numbers tell an interesting story. Here are Shields’ GB percentages in the majors: 42.7%/43.4/46.3/42.3/40.7. And here are his HR/FB percentages: 13.7%/11.1/9.8/11.2/14.1. It may be an odd coincidence but the lower Shields’ GB%, the higher his HR/FB%. If you listed the years Shields pitched from lowest GB% to highest it would appear 2010/2009/2006/2007/2008. Do the same thing with his HR/FB% (highest to lowest), and the list order is almost identical: 2010/2006/2009/2007/2008. It’s certainly an interesting trend, and although it could be coincidental, it appears that Shields’ HR problems are compounded by the fact that when the number of fly balls he gives up increases, the number of home runs per fly ball increases as well. This is important because Shields’ ERA’s over the years directly correlate with the number of HR’s he gives up. Here are his ERA’s from best to worst with his HR/9 that season: 3.56/1, 3.85/1.17, 4.14/1.19, 4.84/1.30, 4.86/1.54. The increased K’s mean nothing unless Shields starts generating more ground balls.
Derek Jeter SS (NYY) – Jeter’s been sapped of all of his power this season as evidenced by his career worst ISO (.105) and SLG (.307). Those numbers are well below his career marks in those categories of .139 and .453 respectively. The cause of these declining numbers is the fact that Jeter is pounding the ball into the ground. He has a whopping 65.3 GB%, which is giving Jeter limited opportunities for base hits. Combine that with the fact that Jeter’s raw power must be slowly dying (36 YO), and you have someone with the makeup of a speed hitter only. Problem is Jeter’s not that fast. To make matters worse Jeter’s plate discipline is waning. He is chasing pitches outside of the zone 28% of the time; his career mark is way less (20.4%) as is his previous career high (23.7%). His name recognition will lead him to be drafted way too high next season; this is clearly a player in decline so don’t be that person!
Rajai Davis OF (OAK) – I’m a Rajai Davis fan at heart, but my head tells me it’s unlikely he’ll become a successful leadoff man due to his lack of patience. Davis impressed a few people, including myself, last season when he almost doubled his walk rate from the year before. He went from a putrid 3.5 BB% to a not so bad but encouraging enough 6.7 BB%. However, this season Davis’ walk rate has dropped down to 4.3%. Davis will turn 30 this off season, and I’m starting to think it won’t ever get better for him than it was in ’09 when he had a .305/.360/.423 triple slash. The speed will still be there for a few more seasons (and he’ll be fantasy relevant on the basis of steals alone), but he won’t contribute in any other categories. It’s disappointing but his lack of patience costs him stolen base opportunities, runs scored opportunities and quite possibly a leadoff spot in 2011. The end result is a disappointingly low amount of actual runs scored for Davis when weighed against his potential run scoring output.
Jarrod Dyson OF (KC) – Dyson is making the most of his September callup thus far. He led off for the Royals last night, going 3 – 4 with 3 RS and an RBI. Dyson doubles twice and now has 4 in 18 at bats. He also stole his 4th base, despite only having 20 plate appearances. Perhaps most impressively, Dyson now has as many walks (2) as strikeouts in his first ever go around at the major league level. Yes, it’s a super duper small sample size, but these are certainly good signs. However, Dyson’s minor league track record indicate he could run into some problems. His EYE isn’t awful, but not great either, sitting around .50 in most of his minor league seasons. Dyson has no HR power (1 HR in 1245 PA’s), but he started gaining a little gap power with 17 doubles at AAA this season (just 22 doubles in 4 minor league seasons prior). So, the average plate discipline and well below average power may make it difficult for Dyson to adjust. Once he does adjust, though, Dyson has plenty of speed to utilize. He stole .43 bases per game in the minors with a success rate of 80%.
Edwin Encarnacion 3B (TOR) – Encarnacion hit his 15th homer of the season last night, and I think he’ll be a good value draft pick next season. Encarnacion has always had good patience at the plate (9 BB%) and above average power (44.1 FB%, 11.9 HR/FB%). This season has been no different other than the fact that Encarnacion is hitting more line drives than he has in years (20.2%). He’s still just 27 YO and is a good fit for Toronto’s grip it and rip it style of offense. The batting average may be low, but Encarnacion will hit for power.
Ervin Santana SP (LAA) – Santana was extremely dominant last night. In shutting out the Rangers, he struck out 8 while walking just 1. Outings like this bring back memories of Santana’s spectacular 2008 season. Unfortunately, that season appears to be an anomaly. He posted an 8.79 K/9 and 1.93 BB/9. In his other 5 seasons his K/9 are 6.67/6.22/7.56/6.89/6.88 and his BB/9 are 3.16/3.09/3.48/3.03/2.98. So, while outings like last night, especially at the tail end of the season, may get owners hopefully that Santana can turn back to his ’08 form, the reality is we are much better judging him on the other 5 seasons because that’s who he truly is.
